Hepatology and Gastroenterology Department, National Liver Institute, Menoufia University, Shebeen El-Kom, Egypt.
Hepatopancreatobiliary and Liver Transplant Surgery Department, National Liver Institute, Menoufia University, Shebeen El-Kom, Egypt.
Can J Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2022 Feb 18;2022:2877859. doi: 10.1155/2022/2877859. eCollection 2022.
146 adult liver transplant recipients were included. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine the independent predictors of survival at 3 months, 1 year, and 5 years. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the BAR score was plotted, and the area under the ROC curve (AUROC) was calculated. Kaplan-Meier curve and log-rank test were used to compare survival above and below the best cutoff values.
The mean age was 52.45 ± 8.54 years, and 59.6% were males. The survival rates were 89, 78.8, and 72% at 3 months, 1 year, and 5 years, respectively. The BAR score demonstrated a clinically significant value in the prediction of 3-month (AUROC = 0.89), 1-year (AUROC = 0.76), and 5-year survival (AUROC = 0.71). Among the investigated factors associated with survival, BAR score <10 points was the only independent predictor of 3-month (OR 7.34, < 0.0001), 1-year (OR 3.37, =0.001), and 5-year survival (OR 2.83, =0.044).
BAR is a simple and easily applicable scoring system that could significantly predict short- and long-term survival after LDLT. A large multicenter study is warranted to validate our results in the Egyptian population.
共纳入 146 例成人肝移植受者。采用单因素和多因素分析确定 3 个月、1 年和 5 年生存率的独立预测因素。绘制 BAR 评分的受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线，并计算 ROC 曲线下面积（AUROC）。Kaplan-Meier 曲线和对数秩检验用于比较最佳截止值以上和以下的生存率。
平均年龄为 52.45±8.54 岁，男性占 59.6%。3 个月、1 年和 5 年的生存率分别为 89%、78.8%和 72%。BAR 评分在预测 3 个月（AUROC=0.89）、1 年（AUROC=0.76）和 5 年生存率（AUROC=0.71）方面具有显著的临床价值。在所研究的与生存相关的因素中，BAR 评分<10 分是 3 个月（OR 7.34，<0.0001）、1 年（OR 3.37，=0.001）和 5 年生存率（OR 2.83，=0.044）的唯一独立预测因素。
BAR 是一种简单且易于应用的评分系统，可显著预测 LDLT 后短期和长期生存率。需要进行大型多中心研究，以验证我们在埃及人群中的结果。
