Begg C B, Berlin J A
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA 02115.
J Natl Cancer Inst. 1989 Jan 18;81(2):107-15. doi: 10.1093/jnci/81.2.107.
Publication bias is a widely recognized phenomenon that occurs because of the influence of study results on the chances of publication. Usually, studies with positive results are more likely to be published than studies with negative results, which leads to a preponderance of false-positive results in the literature. Empiric studies have demonstrated that the induced bias is large and can have a serious impact on meta-analyses, in which data from several studies are aggregated, as well as on informal reviews. The problem is deeply embedded in current research practice, which encourages demonstration of statistical significance to "prove" theories, and one of its causes is the pressure to publish extensively that is an integral part of the competition for academic promotion. Serious efforts to reduce this problem will involve restructuring the process by which study results are disseminated, changing editorial policies, and altering the style and methods of statistical analysis.
发表偏倚是一种广为人知的现象,它是由于研究结果对发表机会的影响而产生的。通常,与阴性结果的研究相比,阳性结果的研究更有可能发表,这导致文献中出现大量假阳性结果。实证研究表明,由此产生的偏倚很大,并且会对荟萃分析(其中汇总了多项研究的数据)以及非正式综述产生严重影响。这个问题深深植根于当前的研究实践中,当前的研究实践鼓励通过证明统计学显著性来 “证明” 理论,其原因之一是大量发表的压力,而这是学术晋升竞争中不可或缺的一部分。为减少这一问题而做出的认真努力将涉及重组研究结果的传播过程、改变编辑政策以及改变统计分析的方式和方法。