Anderson Jill T
Department Genetics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA.
Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA.
New Phytol. 2016 Apr;210(1):81-7. doi: 10.1111/nph.13693. Epub 2015 Oct 7.
Modern reliance on fossil fuels has ushered in extreme temperatures globally and abnormal precipitation patterns in many regions. Although the climate is changing rapidly, other agents of natural selection such as photoperiod remain constant. This decoupling of previously reliable environmental cues shifts adaptive landscapes, favors novel suites of traits and likely increases the extinction risk of local populations. Here, I examine the fitness consequences of changing climates. Meta-analyses demonstrate that simulated future climates depress viability and fecundity components of fitness for native plant species in the short term, which could reduce population growth rates. Contracting populations that cannot adapt or adjust plastically to new climates might not be capable of producing sufficient migrants to track changing conditions.
现代对化石燃料的依赖已在全球范围内带来了极端温度，并在许多地区造成了异常降水模式。尽管气候正在迅速变化，但其他自然选择因素，如光周期，却保持不变。先前可靠的环境线索的这种脱钩改变了适应性景观，有利于新的性状组合，并可能增加当地种群的灭绝风险。在此，我研究气候变化对适合度的影响。荟萃分析表明，模拟的未来气候在短期内会降低本地植物物种适合度的生存能力和繁殖力成分，这可能会降低种群增长率。无法适应或无法通过可塑性适应新气候的收缩种群可能无法产生足够的迁移个体来追踪变化的环境条件。
