Rindermann Heiner, Pichelmann Stefan
Department of Psychology, Technische Universität Chemnitz, Chemnitz, Germany.
PLoS One. 2015 Oct 13;10(10):e0138412. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0138412. eCollection 2015.
The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups' (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed.
美国国家教育进展评估（NAEP）衡量美国学生在阅读和数学方面的认知能力（最近一次2012年调查，N = 50,000）。基于1971年至2012年的结果进行的长期发展情况可用于预测未来的认知趋势。为了预测美国的平均水平，还必须考虑人口趋势。1978/80年最大群体（白人）的平均水平设定为M = 100，标准差SD = 15，并用作基准。根据17岁学生过去两个NAEP发展阶段，即1978/80年至2012年（较为乐观）和1992年至2012年（较为悲观），以及美国人口普查局的人口预测，估算了直至2060年整个年龄组和族裔群体的认知趋势。2060年的估计人口平均水平为103（乐观）或102（悲观）。每十年的平均增长分别为dec = 0.76或0.45智商点。白人 - 黑人以及白人 - 西班牙裔的差距缩小了一半，亚裔 - 白人的差距扩大了两倍。少数族裔的追赶（他们更快的能力增长）对总体3智商点的增长贡献约为2智商点；然而，他们更大的人口增长使总体增长减少了大致相同的数量（-1.4智商点）。由于能力增长较快的少数族裔在人口比例中也有所上升，交互项为正（约1智商点）。文中还讨论了其对经济和社会发展的影响。
