Heckman James J, Lafontaine Paul A
University of Chicago, University College Dublin and the American Bar Foundation, 1126 E. 59 Street, Chicago IL 60637. Telephone: (773) 702-0634; -8490; Email:
Rev Econ Stat. 2010 May;92(2):244-262. doi: 10.1162/rest.2010.12366.
This paper applies a unified methodology to multiple data sets to estimate both the levels and trends in U.S. high school graduation rates. We establish that (a) the true rate is substantially lower than widely used measures; (b) it peaked in the early 1970s; (c) majority/minority differentials are substantial and have not converged for 35 years; (d) lower post-1970 rates are not solely due to increasing immigrant and minority populations; (e) our findings explain part of the slowdown in college attendance and rising college wage premiums; and (f) widening graduation differentials by gender help explain increasing male-female college attendance gaps.
本文运用统一的方法对多个数据集进行分析，以估算美国高中毕业生的毕业率水平及其变化趋势。我们证实：（a）实际毕业率远低于广泛采用的衡量标准；（b）毕业率在20世纪70年代初达到峰值；（c）多数群体/少数群体之间的差距很大，且35年来一直没有缩小；（d）20世纪70年代后毕业率下降并非完全归因于移民和少数族裔人口的增加；（e）我们的研究结果解释了大学入学率放缓和大学工资溢价上升的部分原因；（f）毕业率上性别差异的扩大有助于解释男女大学入学差距的增加。
