Rota A, Charles C, Starvaggi Cucuzza A, Pregel P
Dipartimento di Scienze Veterinarie, Università di Torino, Grugliasco, Torino, Italia.
Reprod Domest Anim. 2015 Dec;50(6):1028-31. doi: 10.1111/rda.12631. Epub 2015 Oct 29.
In clinical settings, when the reproductive history of a near-term bitch is limited to mating dates, the possibility to accurately assess whether pregnancy is at term could be very useful in order to be able to plan a correct management of parturition or to safely perform an elective Caesarean section. The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic efficacy of a single progesterone determination, measured by chemiluminescent immunoassay (CLIA), in predicting the occurrence of parturition on the following day. At least one blood sample was collected from 51 pre-partum bitches during the 3 days before parturition and on day of parturition. The efficacy of progesterone as a marker of the end of pregnancy was tested using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Youden's index was calculated to select the optimal cut-off value (with 95% confidence interval), aiming at maximizing the correct identification of negative events, so not to risk to diagnose as full term a bitch which is not. Progesterone concentration lower than 3.4 ng/ml correctly identified the bitches whelping the following day; however, because of the obliged prudential approach, sensitivity was low (46.88%), and 17 of 32 full-term bitches were missed. Due to a very large individual variation, a single progesterone determination has low diagnostic efficacy, although it can represent a useful first screening.
在临床环境中，当临近分娩的母犬繁殖史仅限于交配日期时，准确评估妊娠是否足月的可能性对于能够规划正确的分娩管理或安全地进行选择性剖宫产非常有用。本研究的目的是评估通过化学发光免疫分析（CLIA）测定的单次孕酮值在预测次日分娩发生情况方面的诊断效能。在分娩前3天和分娩当天，从51只产前母犬中至少采集一份血样。使用受试者工作特征（ROC）分析来测试孕酮作为妊娠结束标志物的效能。计算约登指数以选择最佳临界值（95%置信区间），目的是最大限度地正确识别阴性事件，以免将未足月的母犬误诊为足月。孕酮浓度低于3.4 ng/ml可正确识别次日分娩的母犬；然而，由于必须采取谨慎的方法，敏感性较低（46.88%），32只足月母犬中有17只被漏诊。由于个体差异非常大，单次孕酮测定的诊断效能较低，尽管它可作为有用的初步筛查。
