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总误差与测量不确定度:变革还是演进?

Total error vs. measurement uncertainty: revolution or evolution?

作者信息

Oosterhuis Wytze P, Theodorsson Elvar

出版信息

Clin Chem Lab Med. 2016 Feb;54(2):235-9. doi: 10.1515/cclm-2015-0997.

Abstract

The first strategic EFLM conference "Defining analytical performance goals, 15 years after the Stockholm Conference" was held in the autumn of 2014 in Milan. It maintained the Stockholm 1999 hierarchy of performance goals but rearranged them and established five task and finish groups to work on topics related to analytical performance goals including one on the "total error" theory. Jim Westgard recently wrote a comprehensive overview of performance goals and of the total error theory critical of the results and intentions of the Milan 2014 conference. The "total error" theory originated by Jim Westgard and co-workers has a dominating influence on the theory and practice of clinical chemistry but is not accepted in other fields of metrology. The generally accepted uncertainty theory, however, suffers from complex mathematics and conceived impracticability in clinical chemistry. The pros and cons of the total error theory need to be debated, making way for methods that can incorporate all relevant causes of uncertainty when making medical diagnoses and monitoring treatment effects. This development should preferably proceed not as a revolution but as an evolution.

摘要

欧洲临床化学和实验室医学学会(EFLM)的首届战略会议“斯德哥尔摩会议15年后:定义分析性能目标”于2014年秋季在米兰举行。会议维持了1999年斯德哥尔摩会议的性能目标层级,但对其进行了重新排列,并设立了五个任务完成小组,以研究与分析性能目标相关的主题,其中包括一个关于“总误差”理论的小组。吉姆·韦斯特加德最近撰写了一篇关于性能目标和总误差理论的全面综述,对2014年米兰会议的结果和意图提出了批评。吉姆·韦斯特加德及其同事提出的“总误差”理论对临床化学的理论和实践产生了主导性影响,但在计量学的其他领域并未被接受。然而,普遍接受的不确定度理论在临床化学中存在数学复杂且被认为不实用的问题。总误差理论的优缺点需要进行辩论,以便为在进行医学诊断和监测治疗效果时能够纳入所有相关不确定度原因的方法开辟道路。这种发展最好不要以革命的方式进行,而应以渐进的方式进行。

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