Padmanabha Harish, Correa Fabio, Rubio Camilo, Baeza Andres, Osorio Salua, Mendez Jairo, Jones James Holland, Diuk-Wasser Maria A
Centro de Investigaciones en el Desarrollo Humano (CIDHUM), Universidad del Norte, Km 5 Via Puerto Colombia, Puerto Colombia, Colombia.
National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC), University of Maryland, 1 Park Place, Suite 300, Annapolis, Maryland, 21401, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2015 Dec 14;10(12):e0144451. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144451. eCollection 2015.
Dengue is known to transmit between humans and A. aegypti mosquitoes living in neighboring houses. Although transmission is thought to be highly heterogeneous in both space and time, little is known about the patterns and drivers of transmission in groups of houses in endemic settings. We carried out surveys of PCR positivity in children residing in 2-block patches of highly endemic cities of Colombia. We found high levels of heterogeneity in PCR positivity, varying from less than 30% in 8 of the 10 patches to 56 and 96%, with the latter patch containing 22 children simultaneously PCR positive (PCR22) for DEN2. We then used an agent-based model to assess the likely eco-epidemiological context of this observation. Our model, simulating daily dengue dynamics over a 20 year period in a single two block patch, suggests that the observed heterogeneity most likely derived from variation in the density of susceptible people. Two aspects of human adaptive behavior were critical to determining this density: external social relationships favoring viral introduction (by susceptible residents or infectious visitors) and immigration of households from non-endemic areas. External social relationships generating frequent viral introduction constituted a particularly strong constraint on susceptible densities, thereby limiting the potential for explosive outbreaks and dampening the impact of heightened vectorial capacity. Dengue transmission can be highly explosive locally, even in neighborhoods with significant immunity in the human population. Variation among neighborhoods in the density of local social networks and rural-to-urban migration is likely to produce significant fine-scale heterogeneity in dengue dynamics, constraining or amplifying the impacts of changes in mosquito populations and cross immunity between serotypes.
登革热已知会在人类与生活在相邻房屋中的埃及伊蚊之间传播。尽管人们认为传播在空间和时间上具有高度异质性,但对于流行地区房屋群组中传播的模式和驱动因素却知之甚少。我们对哥伦比亚高度流行城市中2个街区范围内居住的儿童进行了PCR阳性率调查。我们发现PCR阳性率存在高度异质性,10个街区中有8个街区的阳性率低于30%,另外两个街区分别为56%和96%,后一个街区有22名儿童同时对DEN2呈PCR阳性(PCR22)。然后,我们使用基于主体的模型来评估这一观察结果可能的生态流行病学背景。我们的模型模拟了一个包含两个街区的区域在20年期间的每日登革热动态,结果表明观察到的异质性很可能源于易感人群密度的差异。人类适应性行为的两个方面对于确定这种密度至关重要:有利于病毒引入的外部社会关系(由易感居民或感染性访客引起)以及来自非流行地区家庭的迁入。频繁导致病毒引入的外部社会关系对易感人群密度构成了特别强烈的限制,从而限制了爆发性疫情的可能性,并减弱了媒介能力增强所带来的影响。即使在人群具有显著免疫力的社区,登革热传播在局部地区也可能极具爆发性。当地社会网络密度和城乡移民情况在不同社区之间的差异,可能会在登革热动态中产生显著的小尺度异质性,从而限制或放大蚊虫种群变化以及血清型之间交叉免疫的影响。