Marks Gary N, Mooi-Reci Irma
Office of Government, Policy & Strategy, Australian Catholic University, 115 Victoria Parade, Fitzroy Victoria 3065, Australia.
School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia.
Soc Sci Res. 2016 Jan;55:171-85. doi: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2015.10.002. Epub 2015 Oct 30.
The paper examines changes in the influence of family background, including socioeconomic and social background variables on educational attainment in Australia for cohorts born between 1890 and 1982. We test hypotheses from modernization theory on sibling data using random effects models and find: (i) substantial declines in the influence of family background on educational attainment (indicated by the sibling intraclass correlations); (ii) declines in the effects of both economic and cultural socioeconomic background variables; (iii) changes in the effects of some social background variables (e.g., family size); (iv) and declines in the extent that socioeconomic and social background factors account for variation in educational attainment. Unmeasured family background factors are more important, and proportionally increasingly so, for educational attainment than the measured socioeconomic and social background factors analyzed. Fixed effects models showed steeper declines in the effects of socioeconomic background variables than in standard analyses suggesting that unmeasured family factors associated with socioeconomic background obscure the full extent of the decline.
本文考察了1890年至1982年间出生的澳大利亚各代人家庭背景（包括社会经济和社会背景变量）对教育成就影响的变化。我们使用随机效应模型对兄弟姐妹数据检验了现代化理论的假设，发现：（i）家庭背景对教育成就的影响大幅下降（以兄弟姐妹组内相关系数表示）；（ii）经济和文化社会经济背景变量的影响均有所下降；（iii）一些社会背景变量（如家庭规模）的影响发生了变化；（iv）社会经济和社会背景因素对教育成就差异的解释程度有所下降。对于教育成就而言，未测量的家庭背景因素比所分析的已测量社会经济和社会背景因素更为重要，且其重要性按比例日益增加。固定效应模型显示，社会经济背景变量的影响下降幅度比标准分析中更大，这表明与社会经济背景相关联的未测量家庭因素掩盖了下降的全部程度。
