Sousa Aretha Maria Virgínio de, Teixeira Cinthia Carla Alves, Medeiros Sidney da Silva, Nunes Samira Jucinara Claudino, Salvador Pétala Tuani Cândido de Oliveira, Barros Rosires Magali Bezerra de, Lima Fernanda Fabíola Santos de, Nascimento Gésica Gabriela Costa do, Santos Juliano Dos, Souza Dyego Leandro Bezerra de, Bezerra Aline Patrícia Dos Santos, Meira Karina Cardoso
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Escola de Saúde, Natal-RN, Brasil.
Instituto Nacional do Câncer, Hospital do Câncer III, Rio de Janeiro-RJ, Brasil.
Epidemiol Serv Saude. 2016 Apr-Jun;25(2):311-322. doi: 10.5123/S1679-49742016000200010.
to analyze cervical cancer mortality trends in the state of Rio Grande do Norte and its health micro-regions from 1996 to 2010, as well as to make projections for five-year periods from 2011 to 2030.
this was an ecological time series study; negative binomial regression was used to analyze trends and projections.
rates above 5.0 deaths per 100,000 women were observed in all the micro-regions, with a stationary trend in the state as a whole and an upward trend in the micro-regions with the worst socioeconomic conditions; projections indicated reduction in mortality rates in the state, from 5.95/100,000 women (2006-2010) to 3.67 (2026-2030), although a 22% increase in the absolute number of deaths is expected.
although a reduction in mortality rates is projected, they continue to be high, indicating the need for review and strengthening of the state's cervical cancer control program.
分析1996年至2010年北里奥格兰德州及其卫生微区域的宫颈癌死亡率趋势，并对2011年至2030年的五年期进行预测。
这是一项生态时间序列研究；使用负二项回归分析趋势和预测。
在所有微区域中均观察到每10万名女性中有5.0例以上的死亡率，全州总体呈平稳趋势，而社会经济条件最差的微区域呈上升趋势；预测表明该州死亡率将有所下降，从每10万名女性5.95例（2006 - 2010年）降至3.67例（2026 - 2030年），尽管预计死亡绝对数将增加22%。
尽管预计死亡率会有所下降，但仍处于高位，这表明需要对该州的宫颈癌控制计划进行审查和加强。
