Hsiao Hsin-I, Jan Man-Ser, Chi Hui-Ju
Department of Food Science, National Taiwan Ocean University, 2 Beining Road, Keelung 202, Taiwan.
Institute of Applied Economics, National Taiwan Ocean University, 2 Beining Road, Keelung 202, Taiwan.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2016 Feb 3;13(2):188. doi: 10.3390/ijerph13020188.
This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (-) and one month ago (-)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (-)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future.
本研究旨在调查和量化台湾地区气候变化与副溶血性弧菌发病率之间的关系。具体而言，采用季节性自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）模型（包括自回归、季节性和滞后效应）来预测气候因素（包括温度、降雨量、相对湿度、海洋温度和海洋盐度）对2000年至2011年台湾地区副溶血性弧菌发病率的影响。结果表明，平均温度（+）、海洋温度（+）、6个月前的海洋盐度（+）、日最大降雨量（当前（-）和1个月前（-））以及平均相对湿度（当前和9个月前（-））对副溶血性弧菌的发病率有显著影响。我们的研究结果为台湾地区气候变化与副溶血性弧菌食物中毒之间的定量关系提供了新的视角。未来需要基于气候变化信息建立一个疾病控制管理预警系统。
