2005 - 2014年中国沂源县肾综合征出血热的患病率
Prevalence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Yiyuan County, China, 2005-2014.
作者信息
Wang Tao, Liu Jie, Zhou Yunping, Cui Feng, Huang Zhenshui, Wang Ling, Zhai Shenyong
机构信息
Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo, Shandong Province, P. R. China.
出版信息
BMC Infect Dis. 2016 Feb 6;16:69. doi: 10.1186/s12879-016-1404-7.
BACKGROUND
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is highly endemic in mainland China, where human cases account for 90 % of the total global cases. Yiyuan County is one of the most serious affected areas in China. Therefore, there is an urgent need for monitoring and predicting HFRS incidence in Yiyuan to make the control of HFRS more effective.
METHODS
The study was based on the reported cases of HFRS from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. The demographic and spatial distributions of HFRS in Yiyuan were established. Then we fit autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and predict the HFRS epidemic trend.
RESULTS
There were 362 cases reported in Yiyuan during the 10-year study period. The human infections in the fall and winter reflected a seasonal characteristic pattern of Hantaan virus (HTNV) transmission. The best model was ARIMA (2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1)12 (AIC value 516.86) with a high validity.
CONCLUSION
The ARIMA model fits the fluctuations in HFRS frequency and it can be used for future forecasting when applied to HFRS prevention and control.
背景
肾综合征出血热（HFRS）在中国大陆高度流行，中国的病例数占全球病例总数的90%。沂源县是中国疫情最严重的地区之一。因此，迫切需要对沂源县HFRS发病率进行监测和预测，以使HFRS的防控更加有效。
方法
本研究基于国家法定传染病监测系统报告的HFRS病例。确定了沂源县HFRS的人口统计学和空间分布。然后我们拟合自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）模型并预测HFRS的流行趋势。
结果
在10年研究期间，沂源县共报告362例病例。秋冬季节的人类感染反映了汉坦病毒（HTNV）传播的季节性特征模式。最佳模型为ARIMA(2, 1, 1)×(0, 1, 1)12（AIC值516.86），有效性较高。
结论
ARIMA模型符合HFRS发病频率的波动情况，应用于HFRS的预防和控制时可用于未来的预测。
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