Hebei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuhua District, Shijiazhuang, China.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2012 Aug;87(2):364-70. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0472.
The Box-Jenkins approach was used to fit an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal Syndrome (HFRS) in China during 1986-2009. The ARIMA (0, 1, 1) × (2, 1, 0)(12) models fitted exactly with the number of cases during January 1986-December 2009. The fitted model was then used to predict HFRS incidence during 2010, and the number of cases during January-December 2010 fell within the model's confidence interval for the predicted number of cases in 2010. This finding suggests that the ARIMA model fits the fluctuations in HFRS frequency and it can be used for future forecasting when applied to HFRS prevention and control.
采用 Box-Jenkins 方法，对中国 1986-2009 年肾综合征出血热（HFRS）发病率进行自回归求和移动平均（ARIMA）模型拟合。ARIMA（0,1,1）×（2,1,0）（12）模型与 1986 年 1 月至 2009 年 12 月期间的病例数完全拟合。然后使用拟合模型预测 2010 年 HFRS 发病率，2010 年 1 月至 12 月期间的病例数在该模型对 2010 年预测病例数的置信区间内。这一发现表明，ARIMA 模型适用于 HFRS 发病率的波动，可以用于 HFRS 预防和控制的未来预测。
