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[青少年和青年的法医年龄估计:通过结合不同方法减少年龄诊断中的散点范围]

[Forensic age estimation in juveniles and young adults: Reducing the range of scatter in age diagnosis by combining different methods].

作者信息

Schmidt Sven, Schramm Danilo, Ribbecke Sebastian, Schulz Ronald, Wittschieber Daniel, Olze Andreas, Vieth Volker, Ramsthaler H Frank, Pfischel Klaus, Pfeiffer Heidi, Geserick Gunther, Schmeling Andreas

出版信息

Arch Kriminol. 2016 Jan-Feb;237(1-2):25-37.

Abstract

The dramatic rise in the number of refugees entering Germany means that age estimation for juveniles and young adults whose age is unclear but relevant to legal and official procedures has become more important than ever. Until now, whether and to what extent the combination of methods recommended by the Study Group on Forensic Age Diagnostics has resulted in a reduction of the range of scatter of the summarized age diagnosis has been unclear. Hand skeletal age, third molar mineralization stage and ossification stage of the medial clavicular epiphyses were determined for 307 individuals aged between 10 and 29 at time of death on whom autopsies were performed at the Institutes of Legal Medicine in Berlin, Frankfurt am Main and Hamburg between 2001 and 2011. To measure the range of scatter, linear regression analysis was used to calculate the standard error of estimate for each of the above methods individually and in combination. It was found that combining the above methods led to a reduction in the range of scatter. Due to various limitations of the study, the statistical parameters determined cannot, however, be used for age estimation practice.

摘要

进入德国的难民数量急剧增加,这意味着对于年龄不明但与法律及官方程序相关的青少年和青年进行年龄估计,比以往任何时候都更加重要。到目前为止,法医年龄诊断研究小组推荐的方法组合是否以及在何种程度上减少了汇总年龄诊断的离散范围尚不清楚。对2001年至2011年间在柏林、美因河畔法兰克福和汉堡的法医学研究所进行尸检的307名年龄在10至29岁之间的死者,确定其手部骨骼年龄、第三磨牙矿化阶段和锁骨内侧骨骺的骨化阶段。为了测量离散范围,使用线性回归分析分别计算上述每种方法单独使用及组合使用时的估计标准误差。结果发现,将上述方法结合使用可减少离散范围。然而,由于该研究存在各种局限性,所确定的统计参数不能用于年龄估计实践。

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