Lawler Joshua, Watson James, Game Edward
School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
School of Geography, Planning, and Environmental Management, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia; Wildlife Conservation Society, Global Conservation Program, Bronx, NY, USA.
F1000Res. 2015 Oct 28;4. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.6490.1. eCollection 2015.
An increased understanding of the current and potential future impacts of climate change has significantly influenced conservation in practice in recent years. Climate change has necessitated a shift toward longer planning time horizons, moving baselines, and evolving conservation goals and targets. This shift has resulted in new perspectives on, and changes in, the basic approaches practitioners use to conserve biodiversity. Restoration, spatial planning and reserve selection, connectivity modelling, extinction risk assessment, and species translocations have all been reimagined in the face of climate change. Restoration is being conducted with a new acceptance of uncertainty and an understanding that goals will need to shift through time. New conservation targets, such as geophysical settings and climatic refugia, are being incorporated into conservation plans. Risk assessments have begun to consider the potentially synergistic impacts of climate change and other threats. Assisted colonization has gained acceptance in recent years as a viable and necessary conservation tool. This evolution has paralleled a larger trend in conservation-a shift toward conservation actions that benefit both people and nature. As we look forward, it is clear that more change is on the horizon. To protect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services, conservation will need to anticipate the human response to climate change and to focus not only on resistance and resilience but on transitions to new states and new ecosystems.
近年来，对气候变化当前及未来潜在影响的深入理解显著影响了实际的保护工作。气候变化使得保护工作有必要转向更长的规划时间跨度、动态基线以及不断演变的保护目标。这种转变带来了对从业者保护生物多样性基本方法的新视角和改变。面对气候变化，恢复、空间规划与保护区选择、连通性建模、灭绝风险评估以及物种迁移都被重新审视。恢复工作在新的不确定性认知以及对目标需随时间变化的理解下展开。新的保护目标，如地球物理环境和气候避难所，正被纳入保护计划。风险评估已开始考虑气候变化与其他威胁的潜在协同影响。近年来，辅助迁移作为一种可行且必要的保护工具已被接受。这一演变与保护领域的一个更大趋势并行——向有利于人类和自然的保护行动转变。展望未来，显然更多的变化即将到来。为了保护生物多样性和基本的生态系统服务，保护工作需要预测人类对气候变化的反应，不仅要关注抵抗力和恢复力，还要关注向新状态和新生态系统的转变。
