Scholten Nadine, Günther Anna Lena, Pfaff Holger, Karbach Ute
IMVR - Institute for Medical Sociology, Health Services Research and Rehabilitation Science, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
BMC Palliat Care. 2016 Mar 8;15:29. doi: 10.1186/s12904-016-0099-2.
No data exist on the size of the population potentially in need of palliative care in Germany. The aim of this study is to estimate the size of the German population that may benefit from palliative care.
Based on existing population-based methods (Rosenwax and Murtagh), German death registration data were analyzed and contrasted with international results. The data include all death cases in 2013 in Germany.
According to the method Rosenwax defined, between 40.7% (minimal estimate) and 96.1% (maximal estimate) of death cases could benefit from palliative care. The estimation, based on Murtagh's refined method, results in 78.0% of death cases potentially being eligible for palliative care. The percentage of potential palliative care candidates is conditioned by age. Based on the Murtagh Method, in the age category between 30 and 39 years, a potential demand for palliative care can be found for 40.4% percent of all deaths occurring in this age category, with this number increasing to 80.3% in the age bracket of 80 years and over.
An estimation of the size of the population in need is essential for healthcare planning. Therefore, our data serve as a guide and starting point for further research.
德国尚无关于可能需要姑息治疗的人口规模的数据。本研究的目的是估计可能从姑息治疗中受益的德国人口规模。
基于现有的基于人群的方法（罗森瓦克斯和默塔格），对德国死亡登记数据进行分析，并与国际结果进行对比。数据包括2013年德国所有死亡病例。
根据罗森瓦克斯定义的方法，40.7%（最低估计）至96.1%（最高估计）的死亡病例可从姑息治疗中受益。基于默塔格的改进方法进行的估计结果显示，78.0%的死亡病例可能符合姑息治疗条件。潜在姑息治疗对象的比例受年龄影响。基于默塔格方法，在30至39岁年龄组中，该年龄组所有死亡病例中有40.4%可能需要姑息治疗，在80岁及以上年龄组中这一数字增至80.3%。
对有需求人口规模的估计对医疗规划至关重要。因此，我们的数据可为进一步研究提供指导和起点。
