Samy Abdallah M, Peterson A Townsend
Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, 66045, United States of America.
Entomology Department, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Abbassia, Cairo, Egypt.
PLoS One. 2016 Mar 9;11(3):e0150489. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0150489. eCollection 2016.
The geographic distribution of arboviruses has received considerable attention after several dramatic emergence events around the world. Bluetongue virus (BTV) is classified among category "A" diseases notifiable to the World Organization of Animal Health (OIE), and is transmitted among ruminants by biting midges of the genus Culicoides. Here, we developed a comprehensive occurrence data set to map the current distribution, estimate the ecological niche, and explore the future potential distribution of BTV globally using ecological niche modeling and based on diverse future climate scenarios from general circulation models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The broad ecological niche and potential geographic distribution of BTV under present-day conditions reflected the disease's current distribution across the world in tropical, subtropical, and temperate regions. All model predictions were significantly better than random expectations. As a further evaluation of model robustness, we compared our model predictions to 331 independent records from most recent outbreaks from the Food and Agriculture Organization Emergency Prevention System for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases Information System (EMPRES-i); all were successfully anticipated by the BTV model. Finally, we tested ecological niche similarity among possible vectors and BTV, and could not reject hypotheses of niche similarity. Under future-climate conditions, the potential distribution of BTV was predicted to broaden, especially in central Africa, United States, and western Russia.
在全球发生了几次引人注目的病毒出现事件之后，虫媒病毒的地理分布受到了相当大的关注。蓝舌病病毒（BTV）被列为世界动物卫生组织（OIE）应通报的“A类”疾病，通过库蠓属的叮咬蠓在反刍动物之间传播。在此，我们开发了一个全面的发生数据集，以绘制当前分布、估计生态位，并使用生态位建模基于来自四个代表性浓度路径（RCP）的通用环流模型（GCM）的不同未来气候情景，探索BTV在全球的未来潜在分布。在当前条件下，BTV广泛的生态位和潜在地理分布反映了该疾病目前在热带、亚热带和温带地区的全球分布情况。所有模型预测都明显优于随机预期。作为对模型稳健性的进一步评估，我们将模型预测与来自联合国粮食及农业组织跨界动植物病虫害紧急预防系统信息系统（EMPRES-i）最近疫情的331条独立记录进行了比较；所有记录都被BTV模型成功预测。最后，我们测试了可能的传播媒介与BTV之间的生态位相似性，并且不能拒绝生态位相似性的假设。在未来气候条件下，预计BTV的潜在分布会扩大，特别是在中非、美国和俄罗斯西部。
