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分析涉及易受伤害道路使用者的公路铁路平交道口事故中的伤害严重程度因素:一项比较研究。

Analyzing injury severity factors at highway railway grade crossing accidents involving vulnerable road users: A comparative study.

作者信息

Ghomi Haniyeh, Bagheri Morteza, Fu Liping, Miranda-Moreno Luis F

机构信息

a School of Railway Engineering , Iran University of Science and Technology , Tehran , Iran.

b Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering , University of Waterloo , Waterloo , Ontario , Canada.

出版信息

Traffic Inj Prev. 2016 Nov 16;17(8):833-41. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2016.1151011. Epub 2016 Mar 15.

DOI:10.1080/15389588.2016.1151011
PMID:26980425
Abstract

OBJECTIVE

The main objective of this study is to identify the main factors associated with injury severity of vulnerable road users (VRUs) involved in accidents at highway railroad grade crossings (HRGCs) using data mining techniques.

METHODS

This article applies an ordered probit model, association rules, and classification and regression tree (CART) algorithms to the U.S. Federal Railroad Administration's (FRA) HRGC accident database for the period 2007-2013 to identify VRU injury severity factors at HRGCs.

RESULTS

The results show that train speed is a key factor influencing injury severity. Further analysis illustrated that the presence of illumination does not reduce the severity of accidents for high-speed trains. In addition, there is a greater propensity toward fatal accidents for elderly road users compared to younger individuals. Interestingly, at night, injury accidents involving female road users are more severe compared to those involving males.

CONCLUSIONS

The ordered probit model was the primary technique, and CART and association rules act as the supporter and identifier of interactions between variables. All 3 algorithms' results consistently show that the most influential accident factors are train speed, VRU age, and gender. The findings of this research could be applied for identifying high-risk hotspots and developing cost-effective countermeasures targeting VRUs at HRGCs.

摘要

目的

本研究的主要目的是使用数据挖掘技术,识别在公路铁路平交道口(HRGCs)事故中涉及的弱势道路使用者(VRUs)伤害严重程度的主要相关因素。

方法

本文将有序概率模型、关联规则以及分类与回归树(CART)算法应用于美国联邦铁路管理局(FRA)2007 - 2013年期间的HRGC事故数据库,以识别HRGCs处VRU伤害严重程度的因素。

结果

结果表明列车速度是影响伤害严重程度的关键因素。进一步分析表明,照明的存在并不会降低高速列车事故的严重程度。此外,与年轻人相比,老年道路使用者发生致命事故的倾向更大。有趣的是,在夜间,涉及女性道路使用者的伤害事故比涉及男性的更为严重。

结论

有序概率模型是主要技术,CART和关联规则作为变量间相互作用的支持者和识别者。所有这三种算法的结果一致表明,最具影响力的事故因素是列车速度、VRU年龄和性别。本研究结果可用于识别高风险热点地区,并制定针对HRGCs处VRUs的具有成本效益的对策。

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