Potential impact of land use change on ecosystem services in China.

Land use change can greatly alter spatial pattern and overall ecosystem service values (ESV). The goal of this study was to explore the likely effects of land use change on ESV in China. In this paper, the spatially explicit land use changes across China from 2010 to 2020 under the 2000s trend scenario and the planning scenario were projected using the Dyna-CLUE model. The ESV evaluation method was improved by adjusting the ESV coefficients using biomass data to reduce the generalization error of proxy-based method. The results revealed that between 2010 and 2020, total ESV increased by 1798 and 2215 billion RMB a(-1) under the 2000s trend scenario and the planning scenario, respectively. The spatial pattern of ESV in 2010 and 2020 presented a logical geographic distribution. The areas with ESV of 50,000 RMB ha(-1) a(-1) and higher occurred primarily in northeastern and southern China, while the areas with ESV of 5000 RMB ha(-1) a(-1) and lower were mainly located in northwestern China. The spatial differences between the two scenarios were insignificant except that the increase of ESV in southwestern China was more prominent in the planning scenario than that in the 2000s trend scenario, while the total ESV in 2020 under the planning scenario was larger than that in the 2000s trend scenario. The increase of ESV occurred mainly in northeastern, southern, and southeastern China due to forest growth and woodland expansion in 2020 compared with 2010. The results of this study can provide useful information for the public and land managers to consider.