Li Jing, Li Shuai, Wang Xiaohui, Xu Guangfu, Pang Jiacheng
Research Institute of Forestry Policy and Information, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, China.
Inner Mongolia Dengkou Desert Ecosystem National Observation Research Station, Experimental Center of Desert Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Dengkou, 015200, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Sep 30;14(1):22672. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-73764-3.
Over the past decades, the drylands of the Yellow River Basin (YRBD) have undergone profound changes in landscape patterns and ecological dynamics, significantly impacting regional sustainable development. To assess the spatio-temporal variations of ecological risk in the YRBD and provide guidance for sustainable regional development, we constructed a coupled Land Use-Landscape Ecological Risk Model-Geographical Detector-PLUS framework for the assessment, analysis, and simulation of dryland landscape ecological risk (LER). The main findings are as follows: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the area of built-up land, forest, grassland, and water in the YRBD increased, while the area of unused land and cropland decreased. (2) LER exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, dominated by Sub-low and Low risks. High risk areas were primarily located in the western Inner Mongolia Plateau, whereas Low risk areas were prevalent in the Loess Plateau, with an overall decline in risk levels over the 20 years. (3) Water resources, ecological status, and human activities are the main driving factors affecting LER, with the impact of human activities becoming increasingly significant over the past 20 years. (4) Under three development scenarios in 2030, the LER is projected to further decrease, although the impact of these scenarios varies across different research sub-regions. Notably, the Ecological Priority Scenario emerges as more effective in mitigating regional LER. (5) Developing precise land use policies tailored to regional characteristics, continuously implementing ecological restoration projects, strengthening water resource management, and enhancing monitoring capabilities are effective ways to reduce LER in the YRBD. This study systematically quantified the impact of different development scenarios on LER in the YRBD, revealing its spatio-temporal characteristics, and emphasized the importance of planning guidance, ecological restoration, and risk monitoring to align regional development with ecological protection. The findings provide scientific evidence for ecological protection and sustainable development in the YRBD and other drylands, offering valuable insights for global dryland ecological risk management.
在过去几十年里，黄河流域（YRBD）的干旱地区在景观格局和生态动态方面发生了深刻变化，对区域可持续发展产生了重大影响。为了评估黄河流域生态风险的时空变化，并为区域可持续发展提供指导，我们构建了一个耦合的土地利用 - 景观生态风险模型 - 地理探测器 - PLUS框架，用于干旱地区景观生态风险（LER）的评估、分析和模拟。主要研究结果如下：（1）2000年至2020年期间，黄河流域的建设用地、森林、草地和水域面积增加，而未利用地和耕地面积减少。（2）LER呈现出显著的空间异质性，以次低风险和低风险为主。高风险区域主要位于内蒙古高原西部，而低风险区域在黄土高原较为普遍，20年间风险水平总体呈下降趋势。（3）水资源、生态状况和人类活动是影响LER的主要驱动因素，过去20年人类活动的影响日益显著。（4）在2030年的三种发展情景下，预计LER将进一步降低，尽管这些情景的影响在不同研究子区域有所不同。值得注意的是，生态优先情景在减轻区域LER方面更为有效。（5）制定符合区域特点的精准土地利用政策、持续实施生态修复工程、加强水资源管理以及提高监测能力是降低黄河流域LER的有效途径。本研究系统地量化了不同发展情景对黄河流域LER的影响，揭示了其时空特征，并强调了规划指导、生态修复和风险监测对于使区域发展与生态保护相协调的重要性。研究结果为黄河流域及其他干旱地区的生态保护和可持续发展提供了科学依据，为全球干旱地区生态风险管理提供了有价值的见解。
