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季节性对结核病传播动力学的影响

Seasonality Impact on the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis.

作者信息

Yang Yali, Guo Chenping, Liu Luju, Zhang Tianhua, Liu Weiping

机构信息

Science College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710051, China; College of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710062, China; Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada M3J 1P3.

Science College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710051, China.

出版信息

Comput Math Methods Med. 2016;2016:8713924. doi: 10.1155/2016/8713924. Epub 2016 Mar 2.

DOI:10.1155/2016/8713924
PMID:27042199
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4793104/
Abstract

The statistical data of monthly pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) incidence cases from January 2004 to December 2012 show the seasonality fluctuations in Shaanxi of China. A seasonality TB epidemic model with periodic varying contact rate, reactivation rate, and disease-induced death rate is proposed to explore the impact of seasonality on the transmission dynamics of TB. Simulations show that the basic reproduction number of time-averaged autonomous systems may underestimate or overestimate infection risks in some cases, which may be up to the value of period. The basic reproduction number of the seasonality model is appropriately given, which determines the extinction and uniform persistence of TB disease. If it is less than one, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if it is greater than one, the system at least has a positive periodic solution and the disease will persist. Moreover, numerical simulations demonstrate these theorem results.

摘要

2004年1月至2012年12月间每月肺结核发病病例的统计数据显示了中国陕西省的季节性波动情况。提出了一个具有周期性变化接触率、再激活率和疾病诱导死亡率的季节性肺结核流行模型，以探讨季节性对肺结核传播动力学的影响。模拟结果表明，在某些情况下，时间平均自治系统的基本再生数可能低估或高估感染风险，其偏差可能高达周期值。给出了季节性模型的基本再生数，它决定了肺结核疾病的灭绝和一致持续存在。如果它小于1，那么无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的；如果它大于1，系统至少有一个正周期解且疾病将持续存在。此外，数值模拟验证了这些定理结果。

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