Korotkov Iu S, Volchkova G A, Kislenko G S, Chunikhin S P, Shmakov L V
Med Parazitol (Mosk). 1989 Jan-Feb(1):65-9.
Analysis involving autocorrelation functions indicated the presence of cyclic components in the changes in I. persulcatus population as well as in certain climatic parameters. Three orders of cycles are distinguished, their mean duration comprising 5.5; 11.1 and 22.2 years. High number peaks of I. persulcatus repeated with a mean period of 22 years in 1938-1942, 1959-1964 and 1983-1986, coinciding with the periods of solar energy decline in odd 11-year cycles. According to the established regularity, the next considerable rise in I. persulcatus number should be expected in 2003-2009 with a peak in 2004-2006.
涉及自相关函数的分析表明,全沟硬蜱种群变化以及某些气候参数中存在周期性成分。区分出了三个周期阶次,其平均持续时间分别为5.5年、11.1年和22.2年。全沟硬蜱数量的高峰在1938 - 1942年、1959 - 1964年和1983 - 1986年以平均22年的周期重复出现,与奇数11年周期中太阳能下降的时期相吻合。根据已确定的规律,预计全沟硬蜱数量的下一次显著增长将在2003 - 2009年出现,高峰在2004 - 2006年。