Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy.
Euro Surveill. 2016 Apr 14;21(15). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.15.30199.
Based on 2015 abundance of Aedes albopictus in nine northern Italian municipalities with temperate continental/oceanic climate, we estimated the basic reproductive number R0 for Zika virus (ZIKV) to be systematically below the epidemic threshold in most scenarios. Results were sensitive to the value of the probability of mosquito infection after biting a viraemic host. Therefore, further studies are required to improve models and predictions, namely evaluating vector competence and potential non-vector transmissions.
基于 2015 年在意大利北部九个具有温带大陆性/海洋性气候的城市中白纹伊蚊的丰富度，我们估计寨卡病毒（ZIKV）的基本繁殖数 R0 在大多数情况下系统地低于流行阈值。结果对蚊虫叮咬病毒宿主后感染的概率值敏感。因此，需要进一步的研究来改进模型和预测，即评估媒介效能和潜在的非媒介传播。
