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《2030年糖尿病:从过去、现在到未来趋势的洞察》

Diabetes 2030: Insights from Yesterday, Today, and Future Trends.

作者信息

Rowley William R, Bezold Clement, Arikan Yasemin, Byrne Erin, Krohe Shannon

机构信息

1 Institute for Alternative Futures , Alexandria, Virginia.

2 Public Affairs Strategy, Novo Nordisk Inc. , Plainsboro, New Jersey.

出版信息

Popul Health Manag. 2017 Feb;20(1):6-12. doi: 10.1089/pop.2015.0181. Epub 2016 Apr 28.

Abstract

To forecast future trends in diabetes prevalence, morbidity, and costs in the United States, the Institute for Alternative Futures has updated its diabetes forecasting model and extended its projections to 2030 for the nation, all states, and several metropolitan areas. This paper describes the methodology and data sources for these diabetes forecasts and discusses key implications. In short, diabetes will remain a major health crisis in America, in spite of medical advances and prevention efforts. The prevalence of diabetes (type 2 diabetes and type 1 diabetes) will increase by 54% to more than 54.9 million Americans between 2015 and 2030; annual deaths attributed to diabetes will climb by 38% to 385,800; and total annual medical and societal costs related to diabetes will increase 53% to more than $622 billion by 2030. Improvements in management reducing the annual incidence of morbidities and premature deaths related to diabetes over this time period will result in diabetes patients living longer, but requiring many years of comprehensive management of multiple chronic diseases, resulting in dramatically increased costs. Aggressive population health measures, including increased availability of diabetes prevention programs, could help millions of adults prevent or delay the progression to type 2 diabetes, thereby helping turn around these dire projections.

摘要

为预测美国糖尿病患病率、发病率及成本的未来趋势,替代未来研究所更新了其糖尿病预测模型,并将预测范围扩展至2030年的全国、所有州及多个大都市区。本文介绍了这些糖尿病预测的方法和数据来源,并讨论了关键影响。简而言之,尽管有医学进步和预防措施,糖尿病仍将是美国的重大健康危机。2015年至2030年间,糖尿病(2型糖尿病和1型糖尿病)患病率将上升54%,超过5490万美国人患病;糖尿病导致的年度死亡人数将攀升38%,达到385,800人;到2030年,与糖尿病相关的年度医疗和社会总成本将增加53%,超过6220亿美元。在此期间,管理方面的改善降低了与糖尿病相关的发病率和过早死亡的年度发生率,这将使糖尿病患者寿命延长,但需要多年对多种慢性病进行综合管理,导致成本大幅增加。积极的人群健康措施,包括增加糖尿病预防项目的可及性,有助于数百万成年人预防或延缓发展为2型糖尿病,从而有助于扭转这些严峻的预测。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a135/5278808/61023c9da45b/fig-1.jpg

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