School of Environment, Tsinghua University , Beijing 100084, China.
Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Science and Technology, Department of Environment, Yangtze Delta Region Institute of Tsinghua University , Zhejiang Jiaxing 314006, China.
Environ Sci Technol. 2016 May 17;50(10):5412-9. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.6b00775. Epub 2016 May 4.
This study aims to illustrate the evolution of lead in-use stocks, particularly in lead-acid batteries (LABs), and their impact on future lead metabolism in China. First, we used a bottom-up methodology to study the evolution of lead in-use stocks in China from 2000 to 2014. It was found that the lead in-use stocks increased from 0.91 to 7.75 Mt. The principal driving force of such change is the rapid development of LABs-driven electric vehicles. Then, we proposed three scenarios, low, baseline, and high in-use stocks, to project the lead demand and supply toward 2030. The results show that the LAB demand will decrease as a result of competition and replacement by lithium ion batteries. The lead demand in China will come to a peak around 2018-2020 under the three scenarios, then reduce to 3.7, 4.6, and 5.3 Mt/yr in 2030. Meanwhile, primary lead outputs will follow the increase of zinc production in China. Secondary lead recovered from spent LABs will also increase gradually. The overall unused lead stocks in 2030 will be 49.6, 44.8, and 41.2 Mt under the three scenarios, some 3.5-5.7 times as big as the lead in-use stocks. Thus, a large amount of lead will have to be safely stockpiled or exported in China.
本研究旨在说明中国在用铅库存，尤其是铅酸蓄电池（LAB）的演变情况，及其对未来中国铅代谢的影响。首先，我们采用自下而上的方法研究了 2000 年至 2014 年中国在用铅库存的演变情况。结果发现，中国在用铅库存从 0.91Mt 增加到 7.75Mt。这种变化的主要驱动力是 LAB 驱动的电动汽车的快速发展。然后，我们提出了低、中、高三种用铅库存情景，以预测 2030 年的铅需求和供应情况。结果表明，由于竞争和锂离子电池的替代，LAB 的需求将会减少。在中国，三种情景下铅需求将在 2018-2020 年左右达到峰值，然后在 2030 年降至 3.7、4.6 和 5.3Mt/yr。与此同时，中国锌产量的增加将带动原生铅产量的增加。从废旧 LAB 中回收的再生铅也将逐渐增加。三种情景下，2030 年未使用的铅库存将分别为 49.6、44.8 和 41.2Mt，是在用铅库存的 3.5-5.7 倍。因此，中国将不得不大量安全地储存或出口铅。
