Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), 14195, Berlin, Germany.
Glob Chang Biol. 2016 Nov;22(11):3689-3701. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13355. Epub 2016 Jun 22.
Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.
气候变化和土地利用变化是导致生物区系变化、造成生境和生物多样性丧失的两个主要驱动因素。目前缺少的是对本世纪这两个驱动因素对生物区系变化的相对影响的大陆尺度未来预测。在这里，我们根据四个社会经济发展情景，对拉丁美洲这个生物多样性丰富的地区进行了这样的预测。我们发现，在所有情景下，到 2099 年，将有 5-6%的总面积发生可归因于气候变化的生物区系变化。即使在乐观的气候情景下，如果土地利用扩张在本世纪中叶停止，气候变化对生物区系变化的相对影响也可能超过土地利用变化。我们认为，在本世纪早期限制土地利用变化和保护剩余的自然植被，为缓解本世纪后半叶的气候变化影响创造了机会。我们的研究结果可以指导根据全球变化情况下生物区系保护的潜力，对社会经济情景进行评估。
