Department of Economics, University of São Paulo, Av. dos Bandeirantes 3900, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, 100190, Brazil.
Sci Rep. 2024 Jul 16;14(1):16414. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-67244-x.
We present a methodology designed to study the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. Our approach involves decomposing the observed changes in temperature patterns into multiple trend, cycle, and seasonal components within a spatio-temporal model. We apply this method to test the hypothesis of a global long-term temperature trend against multiple trends in distinct biomes. Applying this methodology, we delve into the examination of heterogeneity of climate change in Brazil-a country characterized by a spectrum of climate zones. The findings challenge the notion of a global trend, revealing the presence of distinct trends in warming effects, and more accelerated trends for the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, indicating a composition between global warming and deforestation in determining changes in permanent temperature patterns.
我们提出了一种旨在研究气候变化空间异质性的方法。我们的方法涉及在时空模型中分解温度模式观测到的变化为多个趋势、周期和季节分量。我们应用这种方法来检验全球长期温度趋势的假设,以及不同生物群落中的多个趋势。应用这种方法,我们深入研究了巴西气候变化的异质性,巴西是一个具有多种气候带的国家。研究结果挑战了全球趋势的概念,揭示了变暖效应中存在明显的趋势,并且亚马逊和塞拉多生物群落的趋势更为加速,表明在确定永久温度模式的变化时,存在全球变暖与森林砍伐之间的组合作用。