Gérard Thomas M R, Norder Sietze J, Verstegen Judith A, Doelman Jonathan C, Dekker Stefan C, van der Hilst Floor
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Glob Chang Biol. 2025 Aug;31(8):e70418. doi: 10.1111/gcb.70418.
Land-use change is a major driver of biodiversity loss and a key contributor to GHG emissions, making sustainable land use essential for biodiversity preservation and climate change mitigation. The impacts of land use change are location-specific, shaped by the biophysical context. Consequently, the extent and nature of these impacts are deeply influenced by the spatial configuration of land-use change. This is particularly relevant for Brazil, a global agricultural powerhouse, where agricultural expansion impacts biodiversity-rich and carbon-rich biomes. Understanding the future land-use trade-offs and synergies between agro-economic development, biodiversity preservation, and climate change mitigation is crucial to support sustainable land use in Brazil. In this study, we quantified these trade-offs and synergies for three SSP-based land-use change scenarios projected for 2050. For each scenario, we assessed the spatial variation in impacts on carbon stocks, mammal distributions, and agricultural revenues. Our results show that the agricultural economy is projected to grow at the expense of biodiversity preservation and climate change mitigation objectives, and vice versa. These trade-offs and synergies result from changes in natural vegetation and agricultural land, driven by shifting demand for agricultural products. In particular, under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, rising agricultural demand between 2015 and 2050 is projected to drive agricultural expansion into natural areas, increasing annual agricultural revenue by 36.5 billion USD but reducing carbon stock by 4.5 Gt and mammal distribution areas by 3.4%. In contrast, the SSP1-1.9 scenario projects a decline in agricultural demand over the same period, driving the conversion of agricultural land to natural vegetation. This shift increases carbon stocks by 5.6 Gt and expands mammal distribution areas by 6.8%, although it would lower annual agricultural revenue by 33.4 billion USD. Our findings further highlight opportunities to reduce trade-offs by containing agriculture outside biodiversity-rich and carbon-rich biomes, in combination with strategic restoration of these regions.
土地利用变化是生物多样性丧失的主要驱动因素,也是温室气体排放的关键促成因素,因此可持续土地利用对于生物多样性保护和气候变化缓解至关重要。土地利用变化的影响具有地点特异性,受生物物理背景影响。因此,这些影响的程度和性质深受土地利用变化空间格局的影响。这对巴西这个全球农业强国而言尤为重要,在巴西,农业扩张对生物多样性丰富和碳储量丰富的生物群落产生影响。了解农业经济发展、生物多样性保护和气候变化缓解之间未来的土地利用权衡与协同效应,对于支持巴西的可持续土地利用至关重要。在本研究中,我们针对预计到2050年的三种基于共享社会经济路径(SSP)的土地利用变化情景,对这些权衡与协同效应进行了量化。对于每种情景,我们评估了对碳储量、哺乳动物分布和农业收入影响的空间变化。我们的结果表明,预计农业经济增长将以生物多样性保护和气候变化缓解目标为代价,反之亦然。这些权衡与协同效应源于自然植被和农业用地的变化,这是由对农产品需求的变化驱动的。特别是,在SSP3-7.0情景下,预计在2015年至2050年期间农业需求上升将推动农业扩张进入自然区域,使年度农业收入增加365亿美元,但碳储量减少45亿吨,哺乳动物分布面积减少3.4%。相比之下,SSP1-1.9情景预计同期农业需求下降,推动农业用地转变为自然植被。这种转变使碳储量增加56亿吨,哺乳动物分布面积扩大6.8%,尽管这将使年度农业收入降低334亿美元。我们的研究结果进一步凸显了通过将农业限制在生物多样性丰富和碳储量丰富的生物群落之外,并结合对这些区域进行战略恢复来减少权衡的机会。