Chair of Forestry Economics and Forest Planning, University of Freiburg, Tennenbacherstr. 4, 79106, Freiburg, Germany.
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
Nat Commun. 2023 Apr 11;14(1):2043. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-37796-z.
Tropical forests represent important supporting pillars for society, supplying global ecosystem services (ES), e.g., as carbon sinks for climate regulation and as crucial habitats for unique biodiversity. However, climate change impacts including implications for the economic value of these services have been rarely explored before. Here, we derive monetary estimates for the effect of climate change on climate regulation and habitat services for the forests of Central America. Our results projected ES declines in 24-62% of the study region with associated economic costs of $51-314 billion/year until 2100. These declines particularly affected montane and dry forests and had strong economic implications for Central America's lower-middle income countries (losses of up to 335% gross domestic product). In addition, economic losses were mostly higher for habitat services than for climate regulation. This highlights the need to expand the focus from mere maximization of CO sequestration and avoid false incentives from carbon markets.
热带雨林是社会的重要支撑，为全球生态系统服务（ES）提供支持，例如作为气候调节的碳汇和独特生物多样性的关键栖息地。然而，气候变化的影响，包括对这些服务的经济价值的影响，以前很少被探讨过。在这里，我们对中美洲森林的气候调节和栖息地服务的气候变化影响进行了货币估计。我们的研究结果预计，到 2100 年，研究区域内有 24-62%的地区的 ES 将下降，相关的经济成本为每年 5100 亿至 31400 亿美元。这些下降尤其影响了高山和干燥森林，对中美洲中低收入国家（高达 335%的国内生产总值损失）产生了强烈的经济影响。此外，与气候调节相比，栖息地服务的经济损失大多更高。这突显出需要扩大关注范围，不仅仅是最大限度地吸收二氧化碳，并避免碳市场的错误激励。
