Abdrakhmanov Sarsenbay K, Sultanov Akhmetzhan A, Beisembayev Kanatzhan K, Korennoy Fedor I, Кushubaev Dosym B, Каdyrov Ablaikhan S
S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro-Technical University, Astana.
Geospat Health. 2016 May 31;11(2):429. doi: 10.4081/gh.2016.429.
This paper presents the zoning of the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan with respect to the risk of rabies outbreaks in domestic and wild animals considering environmental and climatic conditions. The national database of rabies outbreaks in Kazakhstan in the period 2003-2014 has been accessed in order to find which zones are consistently most exposed to the risk of rabies in animals. The database contains information on the cases in demes of farm livestock, domestic animals and wild animals. To identify the areas with the highest risk of outbreaks, we applied the maximum entropy modelling method. Designated outbreaks were used as input presence data, while the bioclim set of ecological and climatic variables, together with some geographic factors, were used as explanatory variables. The model demonstrated a high predictive ability. The area under the curve for farm livestock was 0.782, for domestic animals -0.859 and for wild animals - 0.809. Based on the model, the map of integral risk was designed by following four categories: negligible risk (disease-free or favourable zone), low risk (surveillance zone), medium risk (vaccination zone), and high risk (unfavourable zone). The map was produced to allow developing a set of preventive measures and is expected to contribute to a better distribution of supervisory efforts from the veterinary service of the country.
本文根据环境和气候条件，对哈萨克斯坦共和国境内家畜和野生动物狂犬病爆发风险进行了分区。为了确定哪些区域一直是动物狂犬病风险最高的区域，我们查阅了2003 - 2014年哈萨克斯坦狂犬病爆发的国家数据库。该数据库包含了农场牲畜、家畜和野生动物群落中病例的信息。为了识别爆发风险最高的区域，我们应用了最大熵建模方法。指定的爆发点用作输入存在数据，而生态和气候变量的生物气候集以及一些地理因素用作解释变量。该模型显示出较高的预测能力。农场牲畜的曲线下面积为0.782，家畜为0.859，野生动物为0.809。基于该模型，按照可忽略风险（无病或有利区域）、低风险（监测区域）、中等风险（疫苗接种区域）和高风险（不利区域）四类绘制了综合风险地图。绘制该地图是为了制定一套预防措施，并有望有助于该国兽医服务部门更好地分配监管工作。
