Palmer T N
Department of Physics , University of Oxford , Oxford, UK.
Proc Math Phys Eng Sci. 2016 Apr;472(2188):20150772. doi: 10.1098/rspa.2015.0772.
Given their increasing relevance for society, I suggest that the climate science community itself does not treat the development of error-free models of the climate system with sufficient urgency. With increasing levels of difficulty, I discuss a number of proposals for speeding up such development. Firstly, I believe that climate science should make better use of the pool of post-PhD talent in mathematics and physics, for developing next-generation climate models. Secondly, I believe there is more scope for the development of modelling systems which link weather and climate prediction more seamlessly. Finally, here in Europe, I call for a new European Programme on Extreme Computing and Climate to advance our ability to simulate climate extremes, and understand the drivers of such extremes. A key goal for such a programme is the development of a 1 km global climate system model to run on the first exascale supercomputers in the early 2020s.
鉴于它们对社会的相关性日益增加,我认为气候科学界本身并未以足够的紧迫感来对待无误差气候系统模型的开发。随着难度的不断增加,我讨论了一些加速此类开发的建议。首先,我认为气候科学应更好地利用数学和物理学领域的博士后人才库,以开发下一代气候模型。其次,我认为在更无缝地连接天气和气候预测的建模系统开发方面有更大的空间。最后,在欧洲,我呼吁开展一项新的欧洲极端计算与气候计划,以提高我们模拟极端气候的能力,并了解此类极端情况的驱动因素。该计划的一个关键目标是开发一个1公里分辨率的全球气候系统模型,以便在21世纪20年代初运行在第一台百亿亿次超级计算机上。