Rashid Ivan, Giacomin Adriano, Michiara Maria, Minerba Sante, Sgargi Paolo, Mincuzzi Antonia, Silvestrini Angela
Unità operativa complessa di statistica ed epidemiologia, Istituto di ricovero e cura a carattere scientifico Ospedale oncologico Giovanni Paolo II, Bari.
Registro tumori Piemonte, Provincia di Biella, Centro di riferimento per l'epidemiologia e la prevenzione oncologica in Piemonte, Azienda sanitaria locale di Biella.
Epidemiol Prev. 2016 Mar-Apr;40(2):103-10. doi: 10.19191/EP16.2.P103.064.
to test the effect on cancer incidence rates when using precensal computation (computed population) or intercensal reconstruction of population (reconstructed population).
comparison between computed and reconstructed population by area and period in 2002-2011; evaluation of the effect on cancer rates using Italian cancer registries data. Setting e participants: population data from the Italian National Institute for Statistics, cancer data from Italian cancer registries; specific analysis involves data from Parma (Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy) and Taranto (Apulia Region, Southern Italy) cancer registries.
ratio between computed and reconstructed population by area, gender, age, and period; ratio between corresponding age-standardized incidence rates.
Italian population estimates by precensal computation for years 2002-2011 was generally higher than that obtained by intercensal reconstruction especially in 2011, when this has been found in more than 86% of Italian Municipalities. In the same year a smaller proportion of Municipalities (11%) showed an inverse population ratio. Among the most populated Municipalities, the City of Milan showed the higher precensal to intercensal population ratio (1.076), while the City of Taranto showed the lower precensal to intercensal population ratio (0.956). The ratios between age standardized rates obtained with precensal population to those obtained with intercensal population show similar differences; in particular, for all cancer in males and females they were, respectively, 0.985 and 0.982 in the Province of Parma, 0.974 and 0.968 in the City of Parma, 1.023 and 1.013 in the Province of Taranto, and 1.08 and 1.051 in the City of Taranto.
using precensal population as denominator for the year 2002- 2011 produces a remarkable distortion of both temporal trend and geographical comparisons. It is, therefore, necessary that researchers take into account this possible distortion when reporting descriptive measures in the years between the last two censuses in Italy.
测试使用普查前计算（计算得出的人口）或人口的两次普查间重建（重建的人口）时对癌症发病率的影响。
2002年至2011年期间按地区和时间段对计算得出的人口与重建的人口进行比较；利用意大利癌症登记处的数据评估对癌症发病率的影响。背景与参与者：来自意大利国家统计局的人口数据，来自意大利癌症登记处的癌症数据；具体分析涉及帕尔马（意大利北部艾米利亚-罗马涅大区）和塔兰托（意大利南部普利亚大区）癌症登记处的数据。
按地区、性别、年龄和时间段划分的计算得出的人口与重建的人口之间的比率；相应年龄标准化发病率之间的比率。
2002年至2011年通过普查前计算得出的意大利人口估计数总体上高于通过两次普查间重建得出的数据，尤其是在2011年，当时在超过86%的意大利市镇中发现了这种情况。同年，较小比例的市镇（11%）呈现出相反的人口比率。在人口最多的市镇中，米兰市的普查前人口与普查间人口比率最高（1.076），而塔兰托市的该比率最低（0.956）。普查前人口得出的年龄标准化发病率与普查间人口得出的年龄标准化发病率之间的比率也显示出类似差异；特别是，对于帕尔马省所有男性和女性癌症，该比率分别为0.985和0.982，帕尔马市为0.974和0.968，塔兰托省为1.023和1.013，塔兰托市为1.08和1.051。
将普查前人口用作2002年至2011年的分母会导致时间趋势和地理比较出现显著偏差。因此，在意大利最近两次人口普查之间的年份报告描述性指标时，研究人员有必要考虑这种可能的偏差。
