National Institute for Stroke and Applied Neurosciences, Faculty of Health and Environmental Studies, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand.
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Lancet Neurol. 2016 Aug;15(9):913-924. doi: 10.1016/S1474-4422(16)30073-4. Epub 2016 Jun 9.
BACKGROUND: The contribution of modifiable risk factors to the increasing global and regional burden of stroke is unclear, but knowledge about this contribution is crucial for informing stroke prevention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) to estimate the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of stroke-related disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with potentially modifiable environmental, occupational, behavioural, physiological, and metabolic risk factors in different age and sex groups worldwide and in high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries, from 1990 to 2013. METHODS: We used data on stroke-related DALYs, risk factors, and PAF from the GBD 2013 Study to estimate the burden of stroke by age and sex (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) in 188 countries, as measured with stroke-related DALYs in 1990 and 2013. We evaluated attributable DALYs for 17 risk factors (air pollution and environmental, dietary, physical activity, tobacco smoke, and physiological) and six clusters of risk factors by use of three inputs: risk factor exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. For most risk factors, we synthesised data for exposure with a Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR) or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. We based relative risks on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks, such as high body-mass index (BMI), through other risks, such as high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and high total cholesterol. FINDINGS: Globally, 90·5% (95% UI 88·5-92·2) of the stroke burden (as measured in DALYs) was attributable to the modifiable risk factors analysed, including 74·2% (95% UI 70·7-76·7) due to behavioural factors (smoking, poor diet, and low physical activity). Clusters of metabolic factors (high SBP, high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, high total cholesterol, and low glomerular filtration rate; 72·4%, 95% UI 70·2-73·5) and environmental factors (air pollution and lead exposure; 33·4%, 95% UI 32·4-34·3) were the second and third largest contributors to DALYs. Globally, 29·2% (95% UI 28·2-29·6) of the burden of stroke was attributed to air pollution. Although globally there were no significant differences between sexes in the proportion of stroke burden due to behavioural, environmental, and metabolic risk clusters, in the low-income and middle-income countries, the PAF of behavioural risk clusters in males was greater than in females. The PAF of all risk factors increased from 1990 to 2013 (except for second-hand smoking and household air pollution from solid fuels) and varied significantly between countries. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that more than 90% of the stroke burden is attributable to modifiable risk factors, and achieving control of behavioural and metabolic risk factors could avert more than three-quarters of the global stroke burden. Air pollution has emerged as a significant contributor to global stroke burden, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, and therefore reducing exposure to air pollution should be one of the main priorities to reduce stroke burden in these countries. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Heart Association, US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Columbia University, Health Research Council of New Zealand, Brain Research New Zealand Centre of Research Excellence, and National Science Challenge, Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment of New Zealand.
背景:可改变的风险因素对全球和地区范围内中风负担的贡献尚不清楚,但了解这方面的贡献对于制定中风预防策略至关重要。我们使用来自 2013 年全球疾病负担研究(GBD 2013)的数据,估计了与潜在可改变的环境、职业、行为、生理和代谢风险因素相关的与中风相关的残疾调整生命年(DALY)在全球不同年龄和性别组以及高收入国家和低收入和中等收入国家中的人群归因分数(PAF),从 1990 年到 2013 年。
方法:我们使用 GBD 2013 研究中风相关的 DALY、风险因素和 PAF 数据来估计 188 个国家的中风负担,按年龄和性别进行测量(1990 年和 2013 年的中风相关 DALY 对应有 95%的置信区间[UI])。我们评估了 17 个风险因素(空气污染和环境、饮食、体力活动、烟草烟雾和生理因素)和六个风险因素簇归因于 DALY 的负担,使用了三个输入:风险因素暴露、相对风险和理论最小风险暴露水平。对于大多数风险因素,我们使用贝叶斯荟萃回归方法(DisMod-MR)或时空高斯过程回归来综合暴露数据。我们根据队列和干预研究的荟萃回归来确定相对风险。对风险因素簇和所有风险因素的归因负担考虑了一些风险因素(如高 BMI)通过其他风险因素(如高 SBP 和高总胆固醇)进行中介的证据。
发现:全球范围内,90.5%(95% UI 88.5-92.2)的中风负担(以 DALY 衡量)归因于分析的可改变风险因素,包括 74.2%(95% UI 70.7-76.7)归因于行为因素(吸烟、不良饮食和体力活动不足)。代谢因素簇(高 SBP、高 BMI、高空腹血糖、高总胆固醇和低肾小球滤过率;72.4%,95% UI 70.2-73.5)和环境因素(空气污染和铅暴露;33.4%,95% UI 32.4-34.3)是 DALY 的第二和第三大贡献因素。全球范围内,29.2%(95% UI 28.2-29.6)的中风负担归因于空气污染。尽管全球范围内,行为、环境和代谢风险因素簇引起的中风负担在性别之间没有显著差异,但在低收入和中等收入国家,男性行为风险因素簇的 PAF 大于女性。所有风险因素的 PAF 从 1990 年到 2013 年都有所增加(二手烟和固体燃料家用空气污染除外),而且在国家之间差异显著。
解释:我们的研究结果表明,中风负担的 90%以上归因于可改变的风险因素,控制行为和代谢风险因素可以避免全球中风负担的四分之三以上。空气污染已成为全球中风负担的一个重要因素,特别是在低收入和中等收入国家,因此减少空气污染的暴露应该是减轻这些国家中风负担的主要优先事项之一。
资助:比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会、美国心脏协会、美国国家心肺血液研究所、哥伦比亚大学、新西兰健康研究理事会、新西兰大脑研究卓越中心和新西兰国家科学挑战、新西兰商业、创新和就业部。
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