Petkova Elisaveta P, Vink Jan K, Horton Radley M, Gasparrini Antonio, Bader Daniel A, Francis Joe D, Kinney Patrick L
National Center for Disaster Preparedness, Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA.
Environ Health Perspect. 2017 Jan;125(1):47-55. doi: 10.1289/EHP166. Epub 2016 Jun 23.
High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics.
The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens.
We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.
These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47-55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166.
高温对死亡率有重大影响，随着对气候变化的担忧日益增加，众多研究已对全球未来与高温相关的死亡情况进行了预测。与温度相关的死亡率预测往往受到信息不足的限制，难以就人群对高温的敏感性和未来人口统计学情况提出假设。
本研究通过考虑未来的适应模式或人口结构变化，得出纽约市与温度相关的死亡率预测，这两者都会对未来的健康负担产生深远影响。
我们采用了一种新颖的方法来模拟热适应，纳入了对纽约市八十年来观察到的人群对高温反应的分析。该方法根据20世纪大部分时间里观察到的适应趋势，预测了到21世纪末与高温相关的死亡率。此外，我们纳入了一系列到21世纪末人口变化的新情景。然后，我们通过将变化的温度-死亡率关系和人口情景与来自33个全球气候模型（GCM）和两种代表性浓度路径（RCP）的降尺度温度预测相结合，估计了纽约市未来与高温相关的死亡人数。
在33个GCM中，预计每年与高温相关的死亡人数中位数因RCP以及适应和人口变化情景的不同而有很大差异，在2080年代从167人到3331人不等，而2000年至2006年期间每年有638例与高温相关的死亡。
这些发现更全面地呈现了纽约市21世纪潜在的未来与高温相关的死亡风险范围，并突出了人口结构变化和适应反应在改变未来风险方面的重要性。引文：Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. 迈向更全面的城市与高温相关死亡率预测：多种人口、适应和气候情景下纽约市的估计。环境健康展望125:47 - 5; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166 。
