Petkova Elisaveta P, Horton Radley M, Bader Daniel A, Kinney Patrick L
Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th St., New York, NY 10032, USA.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2013 Dec 3;10(12):6734-47. doi: 10.3390/ijerph10126734.
Increased heat-related mortality is projected to be among the major impacts of climate change on human health, and the United States urban Northeast region is likely to be particularly vulnerable. In support of regional adaptation planning, quantitative information is needed on potential future health responses at the urban and regional scales. Here, we present future projections of heat-related mortality in Boston, New York and Philadelphia utilizing downscaled next-generation climate models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Our analyses reveal that heat-related mortality rates per 100,000 of population during the baseline period between 1985 and 2006 were highest in Philadelphia followed by New York City and Boston. However, projected heat-related mortality rates in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s were highest in New York City followed by Philadelphia and Boston. This study may be of value in developing strategies for reducing the future impacts of heat and building climate change resilience in the urban Northeast region.
与高温相关的死亡率上升预计将成为气候变化对人类健康的主要影响之一，而美国东北部城市地区可能特别脆弱。为支持区域适应规划，需要在城市和区域尺度上获取有关未来潜在健康反应的定量信息。在此，我们利用为支持政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第五次评估报告（AR5）而开发的降尺度下一代气候模型和代表性浓度路径（RCPs），展示了波士顿、纽约和费城未来与高温相关的死亡率预测。我们的分析表明，在1985年至2006年的基线期内，每10万人口中与高温相关的死亡率在费城最高，其次是纽约市和波士顿。然而，预计在2020年代、2050年代和2080年代，与高温相关的死亡率在纽约市最高，其次是费城和波士顿。这项研究对于制定减少未来高温影响的策略以及增强东北部城市地区应对气候变化的能力可能具有价值。
