Subbaraman Meenakshi S, Kerr William C
Alcohol Research Group, Public Health Institute, Emeryville, California.
J Stud Alcohol Drugs. 2016 Jul;77(4):568-76. doi: 10.15288/jsad.2016.77.568.
In November 2011, voters in Washington State approved Initiative 1183 (I-1183), which ended the government monopoly on distilled-spirits sales. The current study examined the relationship between demographics, spirits use, and voting outcomes, as well as how these variables related to wanting to change one's vote.
The sample consisted of 1,202 adults recruited through random-digit-dial methods and reached via telephone between January and April 2014. Bivariate tests and multivariable regressions were used for statistical analyses.
Most notably, those who voted Yes on I-1183 had almost eight times the odds of wanting to change their votes compared with those who voted No. Older age, higher education, and being a spirits buyer/drinker were significantly associated with voting (vs. not voting). Among nonvoters, a larger proportion of those who reported that I-1183 was a success (vs. not) were spirits drinkers/nonbuyers. Those who reported that I-1183 was not a success were more likely to report that the number of liquor stores should be decreased. Opinions on taxes were not related to wanting to change one's vote or thinking that I-1183 had been a success.
The result of the I-1183 election likely would have been different if voters could know their future opinions of the actual situation resulting from privatization. This finding is particularly important for states considering privatization. Results also indicate that spirits drinkers/buyers may be more invested in privatization than nonbuyers and that the increased availability of spirits may affect opinions regarding privatization.
2011年11月,华盛顿州选民通过了第1183号倡议(I - 1183),该倡议结束了政府对蒸馏酒销售的垄断。本研究考察了人口统计学特征、烈酒消费与投票结果之间的关系,以及这些变量与改变投票意愿之间的关联。
样本包括通过随机数字拨号法招募的1202名成年人,于2014年1月至4月通过电话联系。采用双变量检验和多变量回归进行统计分析。
最值得注意的是,对I - 1183投赞成票的人想要改变投票的几率几乎是投反对票者的八倍。年龄较大、受教育程度较高以及是烈酒购买者/饮用者与投票(而非不投票)显著相关。在非选民中,报告I - 1183成功(而非不成功)的人中,烈酒饮用者/非购买者的比例更大。报告I - 1183不成功的人更有可能表示应减少酒类商店的数量。对税收的看法与改变投票意愿或认为I - 1183成功与否无关。
如果选民能够知晓他们对私有化实际情况的未来看法,I - 1183选举的结果可能会有所不同。这一发现对考虑私有化的州尤为重要。结果还表明,与非购买者相比,烈酒饮用者/购买者可能对私有化投入更多,而且烈酒供应的增加可能会影响对私有化的看法。