Subbaraman Meenakshi Sabina, Kerr William C
Alcohol Research Group, Public Health Institute, Emeryville, CA.
Contemp Drug Probl. 2016 Dec;43(4):369-380. doi: 10.1177/0091450916667081. Epub 2016 Sep 8.
In 2012, voters in Washington state approved Initiative 502 (I-502) which legalized recreational marijuana use at the state level. This study examines the relationship between demographics, marijuana and alcohol use, and voting outcomes, as well as how these variables relate to (i) whether voters would still vote the same way (a reflection of satisfaction with the new policy) and (ii) the likelihood of using marijuana purchased from legal retail stores.
The sample consists of 2,007 adult Washington state residents recruited through Random Digit Dial between January and October 2014. Bivariate tests and multivariable regressions were used for analyses.
Less than five percent of those who voted for marijuana legalization would change their votes, whereas 14% of those who voted against legalization would change their votes. In multivariable models controlling for demographics, substance use, and marijuana-related opinions, those who voted for legalization had half the odds of changing their votes than those who voted against it. Among past-year non-marijuana users, almost 10% were somewhat/very likely to use marijuana if they could buy it from a legal store. Past marijuana use, the belief that adults should be allowed to grow marijuana for personal use, and the belief that marijuana is not very risky for health were all related to increased likelihood of using marijuana purchased from legal stores.
Since November 2012, support for marijuana legalization in Washington state has increased; accounting for the proportion of voters who would change their votes suggests that I-502 would pass today with even more votes in favor.
2012年,华盛顿州选民通过了第502号倡议(I-502),该倡议在州一级将娱乐性大麻使用合法化。本研究考察了人口统计学特征、大麻和酒精使用情况与投票结果之间的关系,以及这些变量如何与以下方面相关:(i)选民是否仍会以相同方式投票(反映对新政策的满意度);(ii)从合法零售店购买大麻的可能性。
样本包括2007名2014年1月至10月通过随机数字拨号招募的华盛顿州成年居民。采用双变量检验和多变量回归进行分析。
投票支持大麻合法化的人中不到5%会改变他们的投票,而投票反对合法化的人中有14%会改变他们的投票。在控制了人口统计学特征、物质使用情况和与大麻相关的观点的多变量模型中,投票支持合法化的人改变投票的几率是投票反对者的一半。在过去一年未使用过大麻的人群中,如果可以从合法商店购买大麻,近10%的人有一定可能性/非常有可能使用大麻。过去使用过大麻、认为成年人应该被允许种植大麻供个人使用以及认为大麻对健康风险不大,这些都与从合法商店购买大麻的使用可能性增加有关。
自2012年11月以来,华盛顿州对大麻合法化的支持有所增加;考虑到可能改变投票的选民比例,这表明I-502如果今天投票的话,将会获得更多的支持票而通过。