我们的法定最低饮酒年龄会调节饮酒开始后不久首次重度饮酒发作的风险吗？2006 - 2014年美国的流行病学证据。
Does our legal minimum drinking age modulate risk of first heavy drinking episode soon after drinking onset? Epidemiological evidence for the United States, 2006-2014.
作者信息
Cheng Hui G, Anthony James C
机构信息
Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Michigan State University , East Lansing, MI , United States.
出版信息
PeerJ. 2016 Jun 23;4:e2153. doi: 10.7717/peerj.2153. eCollection 2016.
Background. State-level 'age 21' drinking laws conform generally with the United States National Minimum Drinking Age Act of 1984 (US), and are thought to protect young people from adverse drinking experiences such as heavy episodic drinking (HED, sometimes called 'binge drinking'). We shed light on this hypothesis while estimating the age-specific risk of transitioning from 1st full drink to 1st HED among 12-to-23-year-old newly incident drinkers, with challenge to a "gender gap" hypothesis and male excess described in HED prevalence reports. Methods. The study population consisted of non-institutionalized civilians in the United States, with nine independently drawn nationally representative samples of more than 40,000 12-to-23-year-olds (2006-2014). Standardized audio computer-assisted self-interviews identified 43,000 newly incident drinkers (all with 1st HED evaluated within 12 months of drinking onset). Estimated age-specific HED risk soon after first full drink is evaluated for males and females. Results. Among 12-to-23-year-old newly incident drinkers, an estimated 20-30% of females and 35-45% of males experienced their 1st HED within 12 months after drinking onset. Before mid-adolescence, there is no male excess in such HED risk. Those who postponed drinking to age 21 are not spared (27% for 'postponer' females; 95% CI [24-30]; 42% for 'postponer' males; 95% CI [38-45]). An estimated 10-18% females and 10-28% males experienced their 1st HED in the same month of their 1st drink; peak HED risk estimates are 18% for 'postponer' females (95% CI [15-21]) and 28% for 'postponer' males (95% CI [24-31]). Conclusions. In the US, one in three young new drinkers transition into HED within 12 months after first drink. Those who postpone the 1st full drink until age 21 are not protected. Furthermore, 'postponers' have substantial risk for very rapid transition to HED. A male excess in this transition to HED is not observed until after age 14.
背景。州级“21岁饮酒法”总体上符合美国1984年的《国家最低饮酒年龄法案》（美国），人们认为该法案能保护年轻人免受诸如重度间歇性饮酒（HED，有时称为“狂饮”）等不良饮酒经历的影响。我们在评估12至23岁新饮酒者从首次完全饮酒到首次重度间歇性饮酒的特定年龄风险时，对这一假设进行了深入研究，同时对HED患病率报告中描述的“性别差距”假设和男性过量现象提出了质疑。方法。研究人群包括美国非机构化平民，有9个独立抽取的全国代表性样本，样本量超过40,000名12至23岁的年轻人（2006 - 2014年）。标准化的音频计算机辅助自我访谈确定了43,000名新饮酒者（所有首次重度间歇性饮酒均在饮酒开始后的12个月内进行评估）。对男性和女性首次完全饮酒后不久的特定年龄HED风险进行了评估。结果。在12至23岁的新饮酒者中，估计有20% - 30%的女性和35% - 45%的男性在饮酒开始后的12个月内经历了首次重度间歇性饮酒。在青春期中期之前，这种重度间歇性饮酒风险中不存在男性过量现象。那些将饮酒推迟到21岁的人也未能幸免（“推迟者”女性为27%；95%置信区间[24 - 30]；“推迟者”男性为42%；95%置信区间[38 - 45]）。估计有10% - 18%的女性和10% - 28%的男性在首次饮酒的同一个月经历了首次重度间歇性饮酒；“推迟者”女性的最高HED风险估计为18%（95%置信区间[15 - 21]），“推迟者”男性为28%（95%置信区间[24 - 31]）。结论。在美国，三分之一的年轻新饮酒者在首次饮酒后的12个月内会转变为重度间歇性饮酒者。那些将首次完全饮酒推迟到21岁的人并未得到保护。此外，“推迟者”有很高的风险会很快转变为重度间歇性饮酒者。直到14岁之后才观察到在这种向重度间歇性饮酒转变过程中的男性过量现象。
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