Kunkel Kenneth E, Moss Richard, Parris Adam
Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites-North Carolina, North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC USA ; NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC 28801 USA.
University of Maryland, College Park, MD USA.
Clim Change. 2016;135:55-68. doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1494-z. Epub 2015 Aug 29.
Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.
第三次国家气候评估（NCA3）的情景是在学科和区域专家的大量投入下，针对物理气候和海平面上升情况编制的。这些情景经过了广泛审查，并作为美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的技术报告发布。对于土地利用/覆盖和社会经济状况，采用了其他机构已经编制的情景用于NCA3。曾努力将参与式情景规划作为一项评估活动来推进，但成效有限。问题和挑战包括情景可用的时间安排、情景使用方面的指导需求、在多尺度和多部门内嵌套信息的方法需求、终端用户参与情景开发以及综合情景的开发。未来评估若能更早开始情景开发、除指导文件外还提供培训、采用新的灵活方法来嵌套信息、科学和终端用户群体持续参与并提供建议以及开发一致且综合的情景，将会从中受益。
