Hall John A, Weaver Christopher P, Obeysekera Jayantha, Crowell Mark, Horton Radley M, Kopp Robert E, Marburger John, Marcy Douglas C, Parris Adam, Sweet William V, Veatch William C, White Kathleen D
Department of Defense, Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program and Environmental Security Technology Certification Program, Alexandria, Virginia, USA.
Environmental Protection Agency, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA.
Coast Manage. 2019 Jan 24;47(2):127-150. doi: 10.1080/08920753.2019.1551012.
Sea-level rise (SLR) is not just a future trend; it is occurring now in most coastal regions across the globe. It thus impacts not only long-range planning in coastal environments, but also emergency preparedness. Its inevitability and irreversibility on long time scales, in addition to its spatial non-uniformity, uncertain magnitude and timing, and capacity to drive non-stationarity in coastal flooding on planning and engineering timescales, create unique challenges for coastal risk-management decision processes. This review assesses past United States federal efforts to synthesize evolving SLR science in support of coastal risk management. In particular, it outlines the: (1) evolution in global SLR scenarios to those using a risk-based perspective that also considers low-probability but high-consequence outcomes, (2) regionalization of the global scenarios, and (3) use of probabilistic approaches. It also describes efforts to further contextualize regional scenarios by combining local mean sea-level changes with extreme water level projections. Finally, it offers perspectives on key issues relevant to the future uptake, interpretation, and application of sea-level change scenarios in decision-making. These perspectives have utility for efforts to craft standards and guidance for preparedness and resilience measures to reduce the risk of coastal flooding and other impacts related to SLR.
海平面上升（SLR）并非只是未来的趋势；目前全球大多数沿海地区都正在发生海平面上升。因此，它不仅影响沿海环境的长期规划，还影响应急准备工作。除了其空间不均匀性、不确定的幅度和时间，以及在规划和工程时间尺度上驱动沿海洪水非平稳性的能力之外，海平面上升在长时间尺度上的必然性和不可逆性，给沿海风险管理决策过程带来了独特的挑战。本综述评估了美国联邦政府过去为综合不断发展的海平面上升科学以支持沿海风险管理所做的努力。具体而言，它概述了：（1）全球海平面上升情景从那些使用基于风险的视角（该视角还考虑低概率但高后果的结果）的情景的演变，（2）全球情景的区域化，以及（3）概率方法的使用。它还描述了通过将当地平均海平面变化与极端水位预测相结合来进一步将区域情景背景化的努力。最后，它提供了与海平面变化情景在未来决策中的采用、解释和应用相关的关键问题的观点。这些观点对于制定减少沿海洪水风险和与海平面上升相关的其他影响的准备和恢复力措施的标准和指南的努力具有实用价值。
