Xu Xin, Zhou Guofa, Wang Ying, Hu Yue, Ruan Yonghua, Fan Qi, Yang Zhaoqing, Yan Guiyun, Cui Liwang
Emerg Infect Dis. 2016 Aug;22(8):1363-70. doi: 10.3201/eid2208.150390.
To identify township-level high-risk foci of malaria transmission in Yunnan Province, China, along the international border, we retrospectively reviewed data collected in hospitals and clinics of 58 townships in 4 counties during 2011-2013. We analyzed spatiotemporal distribution, especially hot spots of confirmed malaria, using geographic information systems and Getis-Ord Gi*(d) cluster analysis. Malaria incidence, transmission seasonality, and Plasmodium vivax:P. falciparum ratio remained almost unchanged from 2011 to 2013, but heterogeneity in distribution increased. The number of townships with confirmed malaria decreased significantly during the 3 years; incidence became increasingly concentrated within a few townships. High-/low-incidence clusters of P. falciparum shifted in location and size every year, whereas the locations of high-incidence P. vivax townships remained unchanged. All high-incidence clusters were located along the China-Myanmar border. Because of increasing heterogeneity in malaria distribution, microgeographic analysis of malaria transmission hot spots provided useful information for designing targeted malaria intervention during the elimination phase.
为识别中国云南省沿国际边境乡镇级别的疟疾传播高风险病灶点,我们回顾性分析了2011 - 2013年期间4个县58个乡镇的医院和诊所收集的数据。我们使用地理信息系统和Getis-Ord Gi*(d)聚类分析,分析了时空分布,特别是确诊疟疾的热点地区。2011年至2013年,疟疾发病率、传播季节性以及间日疟原虫与恶性疟原虫的比例几乎保持不变,但分布的异质性增加。在这3年中,确诊疟疾的乡镇数量显著减少;发病率越来越集中在少数几个乡镇。恶性疟原虫的高/低发病簇每年在位置和大小上都有变化,而间日疟原虫高发病乡镇的位置保持不变。所有高发病簇均位于中缅边境沿线。由于疟疾分布的异质性增加,对疟疾传播热点进行微观地理分析为在消除阶段设计有针对性的疟疾干预措施提供了有用信息。