Freudenthal P C, Roth H D, Hammerstrom T, Lichtenstein C, Wyzga R E
JAPCA. 1989 Jun;39(6):831-5. doi: 10.1080/08940630.1989.10466569.
A method is described for quantifying health risks to asthmatics briefly exposed to elevated levels of SO2. By combining symptomological and physiological measurements, we have developed a dose-response surface that relates both severity and incidence of response to ambient air quality levels. The complete model to assess potentially avoidable risks includes power plant emission data; ambient SO2 background levels; demographic and activity patterns of asthmatics, the identified population at risk; and the dose-response surface. The estimated annual risk to persons experiencing an SO2-induced response due to a nearby power plant is quite small (response rates under 3 percent). Uncertainties due to modeling errors, variations in activity patterns, demographics and physiological response are discussed.
本文描述了一种对短期暴露于高浓度二氧化硫环境中的哮喘患者的健康风险进行量化的方法。通过结合症状学和生理学测量，我们构建了一个剂量反应曲面，该曲面将反应的严重程度和发生率与环境空气质量水平联系起来。评估潜在可避免风险的完整模型包括发电厂排放数据、环境二氧化硫背景水平、哮喘患者（即确定的风险人群）的人口统计学和活动模式以及剂量反应曲面。附近发电厂导致二氧化硫诱发反应的人群的年风险估计相当小（反应率低于3%）。文中还讨论了建模误差、活动模式、人口统计学和生理反应变化所导致的不确定性。
