Lux Slawomir A, Wnuk Andrzej, Vogt Heidrun, Belien Tim, Spornberger Andreas, Studnicki Marcin
inSilico-IPMKonstancin-Jeziorna, Poland; Department of Applied Entomology, Warsaw University of Life SciencesWarsaw, Poland.
Department of Applied Entomology, Warsaw University of Life Sciences Warsaw, Poland.
Front Physiol. 2016 Aug 23;7:363. doi: 10.3389/fphys.2016.00363. eCollection 2016.
The paper reports application of a Markov-like stochastic process agent-based model and a "virtual farm" concept for enhancement of site-specific Integrated Pest Management. Conceptually, the model represents a "bottom-up ethological" approach and emulates behavior of the "primary IPM actors"-large cohorts of individual insects-within seasonally changing mosaics of spatiotemporally complex faming landscape, under the challenge of the local IPM actions. Algorithms of the proprietary PESTonFARM model were adjusted to reflect behavior and ecology of R. cerasi. Model parametrization was based on compiled published information about R. cerasi and the results of auxiliary on-farm experiments. The experiments were conducted on sweet cherry farms located in Austria, Germany, and Belgium. For each farm, a customized model-module was prepared, reflecting its spatiotemporal features. Historical data about pest monitoring, IPM treatments and fruit infestation were used to specify the model assumptions and calibrate it further. Finally, for each of the farms, virtual IPM experiments were simulated and the model-generated results were compared with the results of the real experiments conducted on the same farms. Implications of the findings for broader applicability of the model and the "virtual farm" approach-were discussed.
本文报道了一种基于马尔可夫类随机过程代理的模型和“虚拟农场”概念在增强特定地点综合虫害管理中的应用。从概念上讲，该模型代表了一种“自下而上的行为学”方法，并在当地综合虫害管理行动的挑战下，模拟了“主要综合虫害管理参与者”——大量个体昆虫群体——在时空复杂的农业景观季节性变化镶嵌体中的行为。对专有的PESTonFARM模型算法进行了调整，以反映樱桃实蝇的行为和生态。模型参数化基于已发表的有关樱桃实蝇的信息汇编以及农场辅助实验的结果。这些实验在奥地利、德国和比利时的甜樱桃农场进行。针对每个农场，准备了一个定制的模型模块，反映其时空特征。利用虫害监测、综合虫害管理处理和果实侵染的历史数据来确定模型假设并进一步校准模型。最后，对每个农场模拟了虚拟综合虫害管理实验，并将模型生成的结果与在同一农场进行的实际实验结果进行了比较。讨论了这些发现对该模型和“虚拟农场”方法更广泛适用性的影响。
