Thijssen Lex, Wolbers Maarten H J
Department of Sociology, Radboud University, P.O. Box 9104, 6500 HE Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Soc Indic Res. 2016;128(3):995-1010. doi: 10.1007/s11205-015-1066-7. Epub 2015 Aug 29.
Several studies have shown that Dutch society has become more open in the last few decades as a result of increasing opportunities for upward social mobility. However, recently it has been observed that the likelihood of downward social mobility has increased for the youngest (male) birth cohorts in the Netherlands. Despite this recent finding, social stratification research has paid little attention to test explanations of downward mobility. This article tries to fill in this knowledge gap by testing three theoretical perspectives that aim to explain intergenerational downward occupational mobility of individuals. In addition, we examine historical developments to study whether the role of these explanations have changed over time. To test the predictive validity of these perspectives, we use data from the Family Survey Dutch Population 2009 (N = 1423). The empirical results, first of all, indicate that individuals who were born in younger birth cohorts are more likely to experience downward occupational mobility than individuals, who were born in older cohorts. We thus replicate earlier findings for the Netherlands. Secondly, we find that cognitive skills and, especially, educational attainment provide individuals significant protection against downward mobility. These findings are mainly in line with the meritocratic perspective. Thirdly, the results reveal that the role of the presumed explanations of downward mobility has not changed over time.
多项研究表明，在过去几十年里，由于社会向上流动的机会增多，荷兰社会变得更加开放。然而，最近人们观察到，荷兰最年轻（男性）出生队列的社会向下流动可能性有所增加。尽管有这一最新发现，但社会分层研究很少关注对向下流动的解释进行检验。本文试图通过检验三种旨在解释个体代际职业向下流动的理论视角来填补这一知识空白。此外，我们考察历史发展情况，以研究这些解释的作用是否随时间发生了变化。为检验这些视角的预测效度，我们使用了2009年荷兰人口家庭调查的数据（N = 1423）。实证结果首先表明，较年轻出生队列出生的个体比年长队列出生的个体更有可能经历职业向下流动。因此，我们重现了荷兰早期的研究结果。其次，我们发现认知技能，尤其是教育程度，能为个体提供显著的抵御向下流动的保护。这些发现主要与精英主义视角相符。第三，结果显示，对向下流动的假定解释的作用并未随时间而改变。
