Santa Fe Institute , Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501, United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2016 Oct 18;50(20):10795-10804. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.6b00177. Epub 2016 Sep 27.
Meeting global climate change mitigation goals will likely require that transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions begin to decline within the next two decades and then continue to fall. A variety of vehicle technologies and fuels are commercially available to consumers today that can reduce the emissions of the transportation sector. Yet what are the best options, and do any suffice to meet climate policy targets? Here, we examine the costs and carbon intensities of 125 light-duty vehicle models on the U.S. market today and evaluate these models against U.S. emission-reduction targets for 2030, 2040, and 2050 that are compatible with the goal of limiting mean global temperature rise to 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Our results show that consumers are not required to pay more for a low-carbon-emitting vehicle. Across the diverse set of vehicle models and powertrain technologies examined, a clean vehicle is usually a low-cost vehicle. Although the average carbon intensity of vehicles sold in 2014 exceeds the climate target for 2030 by more than 50%, we find that most hybrid and battery electric vehicles available today meet this target. By 2050, only electric vehicles supplied with almost completely carbon-free electric power are expected to meet climate-policy targets.
实现全球气候变化缓解目标可能需要在未来二十年里开始减少交通相关温室气体排放，并持续下降。如今，有多种车辆技术和燃料可供消费者选择，这些技术和燃料可以减少交通部门的排放。然而，什么是最佳选择，是否有任何选择足以满足气候政策目标？在这里，我们研究了当今美国市场上 125 种轻型汽车模型的成本和碳强度，并根据 2030 年、2040 年和 2050 年与将全球平均升温幅度限制在工业化前水平以上 2°C 这一目标相兼容的美国减排目标，对这些模型进行了评估。我们的研究结果表明，消费者不需要为低碳排放汽车支付更高的费用。在我们所研究的各种车辆模型和动力传动系统技术中，清洁车辆通常也是低成本车辆。尽管 2014 年销售的车辆的平均碳强度超过了 2030 年的气候目标 50%以上，但我们发现，如今大多数混合动力和电动汽车都符合这一目标。到 2050 年，只有使用几乎完全无碳电力的电动汽车才能满足气候政策目标。
