Knobloch Florian, Hanssen Steef, Lam Aileen, Pollitt Hector, Salas Pablo, Chewpreecha Unnada, Huijbregts Mark A J, Mercure Jean-Francois
Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Science, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance (C-EENRG), University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Nat Sustain. 2020 Jun;3(6):437-447. doi: 10.1038/s41893-020-0488-7. Epub 2020 Mar 23.
Electrification of passenger road transport and household heating features prominently in current and planned policy frameworks to achieve greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. However, since electricity generation involves using fossil fuels, it is not established where and when the replacement of fossil fuel-based technologies by electric cars and heat pumps can effectively reduce overall emissions. Could electrification policy backfire by promoting their diffusion before electricity is decarbonised? Here, we analyse current and future emissions trade-offs in 59 world regions with heterogeneous households, by combining forward-looking integrated assessment model simulations with bottom-up life-cycle assessment. We show that already under current carbon intensities of electricity generation, electric cars and heat pumps are less emission-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives in 53 world regions, representing 95% of global transport and heating demand. Even if future end-use electrification is not matched by rapid power sector decarbonisation, it likely avoids emissions in almost all world regions.
客运道路运输和家庭供暖的电气化在当前及规划的政策框架中占据显著地位，以实现温室气体减排目标。然而，由于发电涉及使用化石燃料，目前尚不清楚电动汽车和热泵在何时何地能够有效替代基于化石燃料的技术，从而降低总体排放量。在电力实现脱碳之前推广电动汽车和热泵，电气化政策是否会适得其反？在此，我们通过将前瞻性综合评估模型模拟与自下而上的生命周期评估相结合，分析了59个世界区域中不同家庭当前和未来的排放权衡。我们发现，即使在当前的发电碳强度下，电动汽车和热泵在53个世界区域的排放强度也低于基于化石燃料的替代方案，这些区域占全球运输和供暖需求的95%。即便未来终端使用电气化未能与电力部门的快速脱碳相匹配，在几乎所有世界区域仍可能避免排放。
