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运用支付意愿法对伊朗摩托车骑行者道路交通伤害进行成本估算。

Cost Estimation of Road Traffic Injuries Among Iranian Motorcyclists Using the Willingness to Pay Method.

作者信息

Ainy Elaheh, Soori Hamid, Ganjali Mojtaba, Basirat Behzad, Haddadi Mashyaneh

机构信息

Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention of Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IR Iran.

Statistical Faculty, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, IR Iran.

出版信息

Arch Trauma Res. 2016 May 15;5(2):e23198. doi: 10.5812/atr.23198. eCollection 2016 Jun.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Motorcycle riders are amongst some of the most vulnerable road users. The burden of motorcycles injuries from low and middle income countries is under-reported.

OBJECTIVES

In this study, the cost of traffic injuries among motorcyclists was calculated using the willingness to pay (WTP) method in Iran in 2013.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In a cross-sectional study, 143 motorcyclists were randomly selected. The research questionnaire was prepared based on the standard WTP method [stated preference (SP), contingent value (CV) and revealed preference (RP) models] taking into consideration perceived risks, especially those in Iran. Data were collected by a scenario for motorcyclists. The criteria for inclusion in the study consisted of having at least a high school education and being in the age range of 18 - 65 years. The final analysis of the WTP data was performed using the Weibull model.

RESULTS

The mean WTP was 888,110 IRR (Iranian Rial) among motorcyclists. The statistical value of life was estimated according to 4694 death cases as 3,146,225,350,943 IRR, which was equivalent to USD 104,874,178 based on the dollar free market rate of 30,000 IRR (purchasing power parity). The cost of injury was 6,903,839,551,000 IRR, equivalent to USD 230,127,985 (based upon 73,325 injured motorcyclists in 2013, a daily traffic volume of 311, and a daily payment of 12,110 IRR for 250 working days). In total, injury and death cases came to 10,050,094,901,943 IRR, equivalent to USD 335,003,163. Willingness to pay had a significant relationship with having experienced an accident, the length of the daily trip (in km), and helmet use (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Willingness to pay can be affected by experiencing an accident, the distance of the daily trip, and helmet use. The cost of traffic injuries among motorcyclists shows that this rate is much higher than the global average. Thus, expenditure should be made on effective initiatives such as the safety of motorcyclists.

摘要

背景

摩托车骑手是道路上最易受伤害的群体之一。低收入和中等收入国家的摩托车受伤负担报告不足。

目的

本研究采用意愿支付法计算2013年伊朗摩托车骑手交通伤害的成本。

患者与方法

在一项横断面研究中,随机选取143名摩托车骑手。研究问卷基于标准意愿支付法(陈述偏好法、条件价值法和显示偏好法模型)编制,同时考虑到感知风险,尤其是伊朗的相关风险。通过为摩托车骑手设定情景来收集数据。纳入研究的标准包括至少接受过高中教育且年龄在18至65岁之间。意愿支付数据的最终分析采用威布尔模型。

结果

摩托车骑手的平均意愿支付为888,110伊朗里亚尔。根据4694例死亡病例估算的生命统计价值为3,146,225,350,943伊朗里亚尔,按照30,000伊朗里亚尔的美元自由市场汇率(购买力平价)换算,相当于104,874,178美元。伤害成本为6,903,839,551,000伊朗里亚尔,相当于230,127,985美元(基于2013年73,325名受伤摩托车骑手、每日交通流量311以及250个工作日每日支付12,110伊朗里亚尔计算)。伤害和死亡病例总计达10,050,094,901,943伊朗里亚尔,相当于335,003,163美元。意愿支付与是否经历过事故、每日行程长度(公里)以及头盔使用情况存在显著关系(P < 0.001)。

结论

意愿支付会受到是否经历事故、每日行程距离以及头盔使用情况的影响。摩托车骑手交通伤害的成本表明该比率远高于全球平均水平。因此,应在诸如摩托车骑手安全等有效举措上进行投入。

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