使用贝叶斯模型估算2013年伊朗交通伤害的成本。
Using bayesian model to estimate the cost of traffic injuries in Iran in 2013.
作者信息
Ainy Elaheh, Soori Hamid, Ganjali Mojtaba, Bahadorimonfared Ayad
机构信息
Department of Research Affairs, Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center of Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Epidemiology, Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center of Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
出版信息
Int J Crit Illn Inj Sci. 2017 Jul-Sep;7(3):166-171. doi: 10.4103/IJCIIS.IJCIIS_104_16.
BACKGROUND AND AIM
A significant social and economic burden inflicts by road traffic injuries (RTIs). We aimed to use Bayesian model, to present the precise method, and to estimate the cost of RTIs in Iran in 2013.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
In a cross-sectional study on costs resulting from traffic injuries, 846 people per road user were randomly selected and investigated during 3 months (1 September-1 December) in 2013. The research questionnaire was prepared based on the standard for willingness to pay (WTP) method considering perceived risks, especially in Iran. Data were collected along with four scenarios for occupants, pedestrians, vehicle drivers, and motorcyclists. Inclusion criterion was having at least high school education and being in the age range of 18-65 years old; risk perception was an important factor to the study and measured by visual tool. Samples who did not have risk perception were excluded from the study. Main outcome measure was cost estimation of traffic injuries using WTP method.
RESULTS
Mean WTP was 2,612,050 internal rate of return (IRR) among these road users. Statistical value of life was estimated according to 20,408 death cases 402,314,106,073,648 IRR, equivalent to 13,410,470,202$ based on the dollar free market rate of 30,000 IRR (purchase power parity). In sum, injury and death cases came to 1,171,450,232,238,648 IRR equivalents to 39,048,341,074$. Moreover, in 2013, costs of traffic accident constituted 6.46% of gross national income, which was 604,300,000,000$. WTP had a significant relationship with age, middle and high income, daily payment to injury reduction, more payment to time reduction, trip mileage, private cars drivers, bus, minibus vehicles, and occupants ( < 0.01).
CONCLUSION
Costs of traffic injuries included noticeable portion of gross national income. If policy-making and resource allocation are made based on the scientific pieces of evidence, an enormous amount of capital can be saved through reducing death and injury rates.
背景与目的
道路交通伤害（RTIs）造成了巨大的社会和经济负担。我们旨在使用贝叶斯模型，提出精确的方法，并估算2013年伊朗道路交通伤害的成本。
材料与方法
在一项关于交通伤害成本的横断面研究中，2013年9月1日至12月1日的3个月期间，每道路使用者随机选取846人进行调查。研究问卷是根据支付意愿（WTP）方法的标准编制的，考虑了感知风险，特别是在伊朗。收集了关于乘客、行人、车辆驾驶员和摩托车手的四种情景的数据。纳入标准是至少具有高中教育水平且年龄在18 - 65岁之间；风险感知是该研究的一个重要因素，并通过视觉工具进行测量。没有风险感知的样本被排除在研究之外。主要结局指标是使用WTP方法估算交通伤害的成本。
结果
这些道路使用者的平均支付意愿为2,612,050内部收益率（IRR）。根据20,408例死亡病例，生命统计价值估计为402,314,106,073,648 IRR，根据30,000 IRR的美元自由市场汇率（购买力平价），相当于13,410,470,202美元。总体而言，伤害和死亡病例达到1,171,450,232,238,648 IRR，相当于39,048,341,074美元。此外，2013年交通事故成本占国民总收入的6.46%，即604,300,000,000美元。支付意愿与年龄、中等和高收入、减少伤害的每日支付、减少时间的更多支付、行程里程、私家车驾驶员、公交车、小型巴士车辆和乘客显著相关（<0.01）。
结论
交通伤害成本在国民总收入中占显著比例。如果基于科学证据进行政策制定和资源分配，通过降低死亡率和伤害率可以节省大量资金。
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