Department of Systems & Information Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
U.S. Agency for International Development, Washington, DC, USA.
Risk Anal. 2017 Jul;37(7):1268-1286. doi: 10.1111/risa.12711. Epub 2016 Sep 30.
Infrastructure development of volatile regions is a significant investment by international government and nongovernment organizations, with attendant requirements for risk management. Global development banks may be tasked to manage these investments and provide a channel between donors and borrowers. Moreover, various stakeholders from the private sector, local and international agencies, and the military can be engaged in conception, planning, and implementation of constituent projects. Emergent and future conditions of military conflict, politics, economics, technology, environment, behaviors, institutions, and society that stress infrastructure development are prevalent, and funding mechanisms are vulnerable to fraud, waste, and abuse. This article will apply resilience analytics with scenario-based preferences to identify the stressors that most influence a prioritization of initiatives in the electric power sector of Afghanistan. The resilience in this article is conceived in terms of the degree of disruption of priorities when stressors influence the preferences of stakeholders, and ultimately a prioritization of initiatives. The ancillary results include an understanding of which initiatives contribute most and least across strategic criteria and which criteria have the most impact for the analysis. The article concludes with recommendations for risk monitoring and risk management of the portfolio of stressors through the life cycle and horizon of grid capacity expansion.
易变地区的基础设施开发是国际政府和非政府组织的一项重大投资，随之而来的是风险管理的要求。全球开发银行可能会被委托管理这些投资，并在捐赠者和借款者之间提供一个渠道。此外，私营部门、地方和国际机构以及军队的各种利益攸关方可以参与概念、规划和实施组成项目。强调基础设施开发的军事冲突、政治、经济、技术、环境、行为、机构和社会的突发和未来条件普遍存在，资金机制容易受到欺诈、浪费和滥用。本文将应用基于情景偏好的弹性分析来确定对阿富汗电力部门倡议进行优先排序的最主要压力因素。本文中的弹性是指在压力因素影响利益相关者偏好时，优先事项被打乱的程度，最终是对倡议的优先排序。辅助结果包括了解在战略标准和分析中最具影响力的标准方面，哪些倡议贡献最大，哪些贡献最小。本文最后提出了通过电网容量扩展的生命周期和范围对压力源组合进行风险监测和风险管理的建议。
