Como F, Carnesecchi E, Volani S, Dorne J L, Richardson J, Bassan A, Pavan M, Benfenati E
IRCSS Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, via La Masa 19, 20146 Milano, Italy.
European Food Safety Authority, Via Carlo Magno 1A, 43126 Parma, Italy.
Chemosphere. 2017 Jan;166:438-444. doi: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2016.09.092. Epub 2016 Oct 2.
Ecological risk assessment of plant protection products (PPPs) requires an understanding of both the toxicity and the extent of exposure to assess risks for a range of taxa of ecological importance including target and non-target species. Non-target species such as honey bees (Apis mellifera), solitary bees and bumble bees are of utmost importance because of their vital ecological services as pollinators of wild plants and crops. To improve risk assessment of PPPs in bee species, computational models predicting the acute and chronic toxicity of a range of PPPs and contaminants can play a major role in providing structural and physico-chemical properties for the prioritisation of compounds of concern and future risk assessments. Over the last three decades, scientific advisory bodies and the research community have developed toxicological databases and quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models that are proving invaluable to predict toxicity using historical data and reduce animal testing. This paper describes the development and validation of a k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) model using in-house software for the prediction of acute contact toxicity of pesticides on honey bees. Acute contact toxicity data were collected from different sources for 256 pesticides, which were divided into training and test sets. The k-NN models were validated with good prediction, with an accuracy of 70% for all compounds and of 65% for highly toxic compounds, suggesting that they might reliably predict the toxicity of structurally diverse pesticides and could be used to screen and prioritise new pesticides.
植物保护产品(PPPs)的生态风险评估需要了解毒性和暴露程度,以评估一系列具有生态重要性的分类群(包括目标物种和非目标物种)面临的风险。非目标物种,如蜜蜂(西方蜜蜂)、独居蜂和熊蜂,由于它们作为野生植物和农作物传粉者所提供的至关重要的生态服务而具有极其重要的意义。为了改进对蜜蜂物种中植物保护产品的风险评估,预测一系列植物保护产品和污染物的急性和慢性毒性的计算模型,在为关注化合物的优先级排序和未来风险评估提供结构和物理化学性质方面可以发挥重要作用。在过去三十年中,科学咨询机构和研究界已经开发出毒理学数据库和定量构效关系(QSAR)模型,这些模型在利用历史数据预测毒性和减少动物试验方面已被证明具有极高价值。本文描述了使用内部软件开发和验证的k近邻(k-NN)模型,用于预测农药对蜜蜂的急性接触毒性。从不同来源收集了256种农药的急性接触毒性数据,并将其分为训练集和测试集。k-NN模型经过验证,预测效果良好,所有化合物的预测准确率为70%,高毒化合物的预测准确率为65%,这表明它们可能可靠地预测结构多样的农药的毒性,并可用于筛选新农药和对其进行优先级排序。